The Wall Street Journal-20080205-Campaign -08- The Morning After the Showdown- Forget Hangovers- New Contests Loom For the Democrats

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Campaign '08: The Morning After the Showdown; Forget Hangovers: New Contests Loom For the Democrats

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NEW HAVEN, Conn. -- There is no rest for the weary this primary season. After waging a cross-country campaign in the past few weeks leading up to today's contests, candidates are already strategizing for the weeks ahead.

Democrats have concluded the 22 states that hold their nominating contests today won't produce a clear front-runner, prompting candidates to think more about states such as Maryland, Washington and Louisiana, which will go to the polls in the coming days.

In the 10 days beginning Feb. 9, seven states, the District of Columbia and the Virgin Islands will hold elections that will award more than 520 delegates, or about a quarter of the total any Democratic candidate needs to secure the nomination for president. While these places get less attention than the big Super Tuesday states such as California and New York, they could tip the scale for Illinois Sen. Barack Obama or New York Sen. Hillary Clinton.

Both Sen. Obama and Sen. Clinton have expanded their presence in the states that hold nominating contests this week and in bigger states, such as Texas and Ohio, that don't go to the polls until early next month. Polling is thin in many of these states, but Mr. Obama is thought to have a good chance of sweeping some of the contests. Conventional political wisdom holds that he is favored in Louisiana, Maryland and Virginia because of the large black populations there.

Nebraska, Washington, Maine and Hawaii all hold caucuses, which require voters to publicly support candidates at set locations rather than casting secret ballots. This type of campaign may favor Mr. Obama's style of grass-roots organization, fueled by volunteers. Caucus states generally attract far fewer voters than primary states, so neighborhood and precinct organizing is crucial to victory.

"We believe that it is unlikely that this contest will be decided on Feb. 5th, therefore we are also organizing and planning for the rest of the February states," Obama campaign manager David Plouffe said in a statement. "We believe these states offer real opportunity for Sen. Obama."

Fueled by a cash haul of $32 million in donations received last month, the Obama campaign began airing television and radio ads in Nebraska, Louisiana, Maine and other states that will hold caucuses or primaries Feb. 9-12. The ads, entitled "Future," feature tidbits of Mr. Obama's South Carolina victory speech. The Obama campaign said it has offices in Washington state, Nebraska, Maryland, Louisiana, Virginia, Maine, Wisconsin and Hawaii and is in the process of opening offices in Texas and Ohio.

The Clinton campaign has offices and active volunteer bases in many of these states. In a conference call yesterday, chief campaign strategist Mark Penn said the nomination wouldn't be decided today and stressed the importance of Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania.

On Saturday, Sen. Clinton was less certain the campaign would drag on. "We'll wait and see what happens on Tuesday," Sen. Clinton told reporters. "We'll wake up on Wednesday and see what we need to do."

For now, the campaign is betting on bigger states such as Ohio and Texas, which hold nominating contests on March 4. Ohio's largely white and economically distressed population tends to favor Mrs. Clinton. Polls of likely voters put her ahead of Mr. Obama by as much as 23 percentage points.

The large Hispanic population in Texas could give Mrs. Clinton an edge. The campaign has a strong volunteer base and offices in the state, which offers 228 delegates and votes March 4.

Leading Republican candidates Mitt Romney and John McCain are less committed to running big campaigns in these states. Should Mr. McCain do as well as expected today, he will return to his home state of Arizona tomorrow and attempt to convince a skeptical right wing of the Republican party that as a centrist he is worthy of their support.

Both Messrs. Romney and McCain will give speeches this week in Washington, D.C., at the annual meeting of the Conservative Political Action Conference, a major gathering of conservatives. The District of Columbia holds its primary next Tuesday.

If Mr. McCain gets a convincing win today in the 21-state Republican battle royale, he will likely jet off to Europe this weekend to lead a delegation to the Munich Conference on Security, according to someone close to the campaign. Mr. McCain has attended the annual conference for several years.

The trip could be symbolic. Mr. McCain would at that point be standing alone at the head of the Republican heap, projecting the image of a unifying figure while burnishing his foreign-policy and national-security chops. Meantime, Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Obama would be back home tussling for delegates in post-Super Tuesday states.

In addition to delegates, the states that hold nominating contests in the next month are so varied, spanning from Hawaii to Virginia, that they can be a good indicator of how a candidate will do in a national election, political pundits said.

A win for Mrs. Clinton in Maryland or Louisiana would show she can beat Mr. Obama in states with large populations of African-Americans.

While they don't provide many delegates, Wisconsin and Nebraska could be important states for Sen. Obama. "Winning in those places would show Obama can generate momentum in all kinds of places," said Harry Holzer, a senior fellow at the Urban Institute.

These smaller states also can provide an important platform for candidates who want to rework their messages, political pundits said. Unveiling a new stump speech can be risky in the days before Super Tuesday, but testing it out on a crowd in Maine could be a good strategy. "In many ways, these states are like giant focus groups," said Susan Herbst, a professor of public policy at Georgia Tech.

Louisiana could prove to be one such testing ground. Tomorrow, Obama endorsers will hold a rally on the steps of the State Capitol in Baton Rouge. Louisiana offers 66 delegates, but the state provides a symbolic platform for Mr. Obama and Mrs. Clinton, who both often cite the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina in their stump speeches.

As in many early primary states, many of the coming states expect historically high voter turnout. The Maryland Democratic Party predicts that about one million voters will turn out for the Feb. 12 primary, compared with about 470,000 Democrats who participated in 2004.

"For the first time in many years, our primary is relevant," said party spokesman David Paulson.

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Alex Frangos contributed to this article.