The Wall Street Journal-20080201-Campaign -08- Democrats Defend Home Turf- With Delegates at Stake- Clinton Vies in Illinois And Obama in New York

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Campaign '08: Democrats Defend Home Turf; With Delegates at Stake, Clinton Vies in Illinois And Obama in New York

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As the Democratic presidential race turns into a fight for delegates, not just momentum, both remaining candidates are taking the fight to the other's home state -- New York and Illinois, two of Super Tuesday's biggest prizes.

At the same time, Sens. Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are being forced to play defense to avoid embarrassing results at home, such as the loss of a chunk of home-state delegates.

Each has campaign offices, paid staffers and active volunteer efforts in the opponent's home state, and each began running television ads in the other's state this week. On Wednesday, former President Clinton campaigned for his wife in Illinois, and Mr. Obama's wife, Michelle, visited New York.

An upset in either state would be a surprise. Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Obama won their most recent Senate races by wide margins -- Mr. Obama was elected with 70% of the vote in 2004, while Mrs. Clinton received 67% of the vote in her 2006 re-election -- and polls show both comfortably ahead in their home states.

But the candidates are devoting precious campaign resources to shoring up support in states where a narrow victory could be seen as a defeat. The margin of victory is also crucial in the delegate fight; because Illinois and New York allocate delegates proportionally, candidates risk losing delegates if they take their victories for granted.

"There are no knockout punches when you have proportional voting," says William Cunningham, a New York political consultant. "I could see [Obama] winning New York City, losing upstate New York -- and at the end of the day, they both have the same number of delegates."

Both candidates have roots in the other's state -- Mrs. Clinton is an Illinois native, while Mr. Obama graduated from New York's Columbia University -- and both have long expected to pick up at least a few delegates on the other's turf. Those efforts grew substantially after the candidates split the early states, turning the race into a competition for delegates. With 232 delegates at stake in New York and 156 in Illinois, the campaigns decided the states were too large to ignore.

"New York is obviously one of the largest states. It's the media capital," says Richard Fife, a spokesman for Mr. Obama's campaign in New York. "It's a place that you want to compete."

The three leading Republican candidates will also have to defend their home states Tuesday, but John McCain's Arizona and Mike Huckabee's Arkansas award delegates on a winner-take-all basis, meaning candidates don't have an incentive to compete there if they don't think they can win outright.

Massachusetts, in a shift from past years, will allocate its Republican delegates proportionally, but former Gov. Mitt Romney is the only candidate with an office there. Mr. McCain has announced plans to visit Massachusetts, which he won in 2000 and where he was endorsed by the state's two largest newspapers, but he hasn't campaigned heavily in the state and isn't expected to run ads there.

Even on the Democratic side, the campaigns may look larger than they are. Mr. Obama hasn't been advertising in upstate New York, and Mrs. Clinton's only television commercials in Illinois are actually spillovers -- ads in the St. Louis media market targeting Missouri, where the race is closer. But both campaigns say their efforts are real and that they wouldn't be devoting limited campaign resources to states where they didn't expect to compete.

"Hillary Clinton is waging an insurgent campaign here, but we have a very strong network of supporters to turn out the vote," said Clinton spokeswoman Stacey Zara Holt in Illinois.

Observers of both races say Mr. Obama's campaign in New York appears larger and better-organized than Mrs. Clinton's effort in Illinois. Mr. Obama's campaign has been active in New York for months, and he has long expected to win significant support in New York City. The city's large populations of young, black and highly educated voters have been a reliable source of support for him. Recent polls have shown Mr. Obama trailing Mrs. Clinton by as few as four points in New York City, and supporters say they believe he can win there.

In recent weeks, Mr. Obama has expanded his efforts upstate, as well. He has opened offices in Albany, Buffalo and Rochester, and is fielding a full slate of delegates in all 29 of New York's congressional districts, something John Kerry failed to do in 2004. He also has active volunteer efforts statewide, although he has so far limited his television advertising to the New York City market.

"You have to give the incumbent U.S. senator the benefit of the doubt," says New York State Sen. Bill Perkins, an Obama supporter. "They come in with a head start and obviously, with the vast majority of the state political apparatus behind her, she's very muscular. But we are comfortable we can hold our own."

Mr. Obama's effort has forced Mrs. Clinton to devote more resources to the state. This week, she began running television ads statewide, and she has also run spots featuring Maya Angelou and Magic Johnson on African-American radio stations.

"It would seem that she has to do more work here than she planned because she has to win New York convincingly to avoid a drubbing in the national press," says Democratic political consultant Hank Sheinkopf. A spokesman for Mrs. Clinton says she was always planning to be active in New York.

Not all of Mrs. Clinton's efforts are a response to Mr. Obama's increased work in New York. Ads in the New York market will also reach Connecticut and New Jersey, where the race is expected to be closer.