The Wall Street Journal-20080129-Politics - Economics- Two Plays for Latino Vote- Clinton Counts on Her -Firewall-- Obama Seeks Breakthrough

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Politics & Economics: Two Plays for Latino Vote; Clinton Counts on Her 'Firewall'; Obama Seeks Breakthrough

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The battle among Democrats for the Latino vote is kicking into high gear.

Sen. Hillary Clinton is counting on Latino voters to play a decisive role as several big states vote Feb. 5. Sen. Barack Obama is battling to overcome Sen. Clinton's lead and decades of hostility between Latinos and African-Americans in some major cities.

The Hispanic vote is huge in many of the states voting Feb. 5. California is the biggest prize both in overall size and in the impact of the Hispanic vote. Hispanics make up 22.8% of the eligible voters in California, a study by the Pew Hispanic Center indicates. In Arizona, Hispanics constitute 17% of eligible voters, in Colorado 12.3%, New York 11.4% and New Jersey 9.9%. The challenge for Mrs. Clinton will be to spur a high turnout among a traditionally low- turnout group of voters.

Polls show Latinos overwhelmingly backing Mrs. Clinton. Latino members of the huge Culinary Workers Union in Nevada supported Mrs. Clinton in caucuses earlier this month even though their leadership endorsed Mr. Obama. Overall, two-thirds of Latino voters supported Mrs. Clinton in Nevada, according to exit polls. Other surveys put Mrs. Clinton's support among Latinos nationally at close to 60%. The Clinton campaign refers to Latinos as their "firewall."

At the same time, Mr. Obama's candidacy is exposing the long- simmering hostility between blacks and Latinos in some neighborhoods and in politics.

Michele Martinez, a Latino city councilor in Santa Ana, a major Hispanic city in southern California, says when she goes out to canvass for Mr. Obama one of the things she hears is, "I can't vote for a black man," sometimes accompanied by a racial slur.

Mr. Obama got a huge lift in his fight for Latino hearts and votes yesterday when he won the enthusiastic endorsement of Sen. Edward Kennedy of Massachusetts, a popular figure in much of the Hispanic community thanks to both his late brothers' appeal among Latinos and his work on behalf of minorities.

The Obama campaign is playing down expectations, especially in California, even though it is pouring money into commercials on Spanish-language television and Spanish-language direct mail. "We have such a short period of time," says Rep. Xavier Becerra, a California Democrat and an Obama supporter. "If we could double the amount of hours in the day or have Obama campaign just in California. I know we could turn enough heads and win Latinos over. But we only have a limited amount of time."

Analysts agree it is an uphill fight. "Hillary Clinton has the edge, but the 'X Factor' is the volatility of the Latino voter," says Harry Pachon, head of the Tomas Rivera Policy Institute at the University of Southern California, which studies Hispanic issues. "We have seen big changes in the past in the way Latinos look at an election. There is still wiggle room there."

Blacks and Latinos have been at odds for decades in neighborhoods like South Central in Los Angeles, where the population has shifted from black to Hispanic. Latino students in Los Angeles have demonstrated against having to observe Black History Month in schools that are now 90% Latino. Politically, many blacks and Latinos have been at odds over immigration measures like California's Proposition 187 that were aimed at restricting services to immigrants. Blacks tend be much tougher on immigration issues because many fear competition from illegal immigrants for low-wage jobs.

Even the head of the Obama campaign office in Santa Ana, Sam Pritchard, a white college student, recalls the hostility between blacks and Hispanics at his high school. "It's apparent to anyone who is conscious of the realities of Los Angeles," he says, though he says he believes Mr. Obama can rise above the tensions and win Latino votes.

Steve Hildebrand, Mr. Obama's deputy campaign manager, acknowledges the existence of racial tensions between some Latinos and blacks. "If divisions are going to be healed, it is Barack Obama who is going to heal them." he says. "This is a guy who believes that any racial tensions that exist in any population -- people need to find common ground and work together."

Mrs. Clinton has several reasons, beyond any difficulty Mr. Obama may have in the Hispanic community, to hold out hope for the Hispanic vote.

Her biggest advantage may simply be how well-known she is. The Clinton campaign is at pains to remind voters that Mrs. Clinton, as a law student, worked for the Democratic National Committee for a time registering voters in south Texas, including Hispanics. While first lady, she convened a conference on Hispanic education, and later one on Hispanic youth. That background has helped her win the endorsement of the United Farm Workers union, which is heavily Hispanic.

"The Latino community knows Hillary very well," says Fabiola Rodriguez-Ciampoli, director of Hispanic communications for the Clinton campaign. "They know she's been around for many years."

In California, one manifestation of that familiarity has been strong establishment support. Daniel Lopez, a 19-year-old USC student who is volunteering to round up Hispanic votes in Los Angeles for the Clinton campaign, says he found "huge support" when he participated in a "Latinos for Hillary" event in East Los Angeles, in which an array of Hispanic officeholders, including Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, rallied for Mrs. Clinton, then fanned out to walk the streets and knock on doors for her.

Mrs. Clinton stumbled earlier in the campaign when she became tangled up in a proposal by New York's governor to give driver's licenses to illegal immigrants. She eventually came out against the idea, reflecting concern among many voters about the immigration issues.

The Clinton campaign sees Hispanics focused on the economy and health care, both issues where they think the Clinton advantage in experience will matter. "The first people who get laid off are minorities and Latinos in many cases," says Ms. Rodriguez-Ciampoli. "That's one thing we actually heard from people in Nevada. We were canvassing one day and a woman invited us to her house and she said, 'Look at my husband, he's sitting here watching movies on TV. He works in construction and there's no work there.'"

For both campaigns, one concern is turnout, which traditionally has been lower among Latinos than other groups. The Clinton campaign is calculating that rising economic anxiety gives extra punch to the Clinton history and emphasis on health care, an issue that tends to rise in importance alongside economic concerns.

In a large national survey of Latinos conducted by the Pew Hispanic Center late last fall, education, health care and the economy ranked as the top Hispanic issues of concern, ranking above other issues such as crime, immigration and Iraq. Thus, the campaign plays up the Clinton health plan and the fact that her plan demands universal coverage for all Americans while Mr. Obama's doesn't.

The trump card for Sen. Clinton among Hispanics is, simply, familiarity -- an advantage particularly obvious in California, where her husband is well-known and well-liked among core Democrats. "Sen. Obama is a great speaker," says Mr. Lopez. "But you have to look at what Sen. Clinton has actually done for Latino voters . . . She has pushed these issues for 25 years."