The Wall Street Journal-20080117-Politics -amp- Economics- Petraeus Is Undecided About Deeper Troop Cuts
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Politics & Economics: Petraeus Is Undecided About Deeper Troop Cuts
WASIT PROVINCE, Iraq -- The top American commander in Iraq said that 30,000 American troops would leave the country by July but that he had yet to make up his mind about whether to recommend any additional reductions.
In an interview, Gen. David Petraeus said he was working to finalize an assessment of security conditions in Iraq and the wisdom of further military withdrawals in advance of a high-profile appearance before Congress in March.
When the 30,000 troops that were brought into Iraq as part of the Bush administration's surge withdraw, the total U.S. troop presence in Iraq will be down to 130,000, where it has held largely steady since the start of the war in 2003. Whether the troop levels go any lower remains an open question -- and one that threatens to reignite the debate over the Iraq war.
Defense Secretary Robert Gates has said he hopes to see the U.S. military presence fall below 130,000 by the end of 2008, a position shared by many senior Pentagon commanders who worry the high troop levels in Iraq are causing growing manpower strains on the army.
"The surge has sucked all of the flexibility out of the system," Army Chief of Staff George Casey said in an interview this week. "And we need to find a way of getting back into balance."
But President Bush made clear this week that additional troop withdrawals were far from a sure thing. After a meeting in Kuwait with Gen. Petraeus and Ryan Crocker, the U.S. ambassador to Iraq, Mr. Bush said he was open to slowing or stopping the withdrawal of troops to avoid jeopardizing recent security gains in Iraq. "My attitude is, if he didn't want to continue the drawdown, that's fine with me in order to make sure we succeed," Mr. Bush said, referring to Gen. Petraeus.
The president's remarks highlighted the unusually central role Gen. Petraeus plays in formulating U.S. policy in Iraq, which will be on full display when the general testifies before Congress in March.
In the interview, Gen. Petraeus said he and his commanders were analyzing three different scenarios to determine the pace and timing of any subsequent troop reductions. In one scenario, Iraq's security situation continues to improve as the surge forces leave, while in the other scenarios conditions hold steady or deteriorate. Gen. Petraeus declined to say how the various scenarios would affect future troop withdrawals, but Mr. Bush's comments suggest that reductions would stop if conditions worsened.
"We're just into the early stages of the initial substantial drawdown," Gen. Petraeus said. "We need to work our way through this." As he toured the bustling Zurbitiya port of entry on the Iraqi-Iranian border, Gen. Petraeus said the U.S. military was struggling to determine whether Iran was honoring a recent pledge to stem the flow of Iranian weaponry and explosives to Shiite extremist groups in Iraq.
Some State Department officials argue that the Iranian government is actively trying to reduce the amount of armaments entering Iraq, but many senior U.S. commanders have long been more skeptical. In early January, the number of attacks against U.S. troops featuring powerful armor-piercing bombs that American officials have long linked to Iran increased, Gen. Petraeus said. But he said there has been a downturn in recent days, making it difficult to conclusively settle the question of Iran's role -- and intentions -- in Iraq. "Only time will tell," he said.
