The New York Times-20080128-In Open Nomination- -Superdelegates- May Hold Key to Victory

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In Open Nomination, 'Superdelegates' May Hold Key to Victory

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Not all Democratic presidential convention delegates are awarded like door prizes in the primaries and caucuses being so fiercely contested around the country.

National party rules give special status to a select political group, including members of Congress, governors, members of the Democratic National Committee, past party officials, and former elected leaders like Presidents Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter and their vice presidents, Al Gore and Walter F. Mondale.

Officially designated unpledged party leader and elected official delegates, members of this high-powered group are usually known by a catchier term: superdelegates.

If the primary season does not settle the nomination fight and it turns into a hunt for individual delegates, it is conceivable that this group of politicians and party insiders could hold the balance in awarding the nomination.

Then it gets interesting, said Senator Christopher J. Dodd of Connecticut, who is no longer a presidential candidate but retains a voice as a superdelegate.

At the Democratic National Convention in August, there would be 796 superdelegates, assuming the convention sustains the national party's penalties against Florida and Michigan for moving their primaries earlier in the year. In total, there are 4,049 Democratic delegates; to win the nomination, a candidate must secure 2,025 of them.

The superdelegates are the target of something of an invisible primary as the rival campaigns woo them for endorsements, for the political connections such public backing can bring and for their actual support at the convention, should it be needed. The superdelegates can also be influenced by the primaries. An aide to Senator Barbara Boxer of California said Ms. Boxer would cast her superdelegate vote for the winner of the California primary on Feb. 5.

Superdelegates were created after the 1980 election and were intended to restore some of the power over the nomination process to party insiders, keeping a lid on the zeal of party activists. They immediately came in handy for Mr. Mondale in his 1984 presidential bid, when they gave him a cushion over the upstart campaign of Gary Hart.

Since 1984, they have constituted 15 to 20 percent of the delegates at Democratic conventions, where they have historically supported the front-runner.

According to a recent telephone survey of superdelegates by The New York Times and CBS News, about one-third have expressed no preference in the 2008 race, about 25 percent support Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton and about 10 percent favor Senator Barack Obama. The remainder did not return calls or refused to comment.

But nothing in the rules binds any of the superdelegates, and they are free to shift positions, unlike pledged delegates who are committed to support a particular candidate at least through an initial convention vote. That creates a situation that political aficionados dream about: a deadlocked convention up for grabs until a bloc of superdelegates comes together and anoints a nominee.

Cue the confetti.

As dramatic as that might be, it seems unlikely to happen. Recent history shows that one candidate emerges from the primaries as the clear choice for the nomination, with the delegates to prove it. Most expect the same result this year.

But that does not stop some from imagining the possibilities. It would be fun, said Senator Maria Cantwell of Washington, who is supporting Mrs. Clinton. Just like the old days. It would be a hoot to see it, just the floor politics.