The Wall Street Journal-20080215-Campaign -08- Clinton Seeks to Regroup in Ad Wars

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Campaign '08: Clinton Seeks to Regroup in Ad Wars

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The lopsided advertising battle between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama is entering a critical, potentially final stretch.

After several months of trailing Mr. Obama in ad spending and in targeting new markets, Mrs. Clinton needs a victory on the ad front as she attempts to reverse a slide in her efforts to win the Democratic nomination. She is facing a costly three-week battle to woo voters in Texas and Ohio -- two states with diffuse, expensive media markets -- ahead of their March 4 primaries.

In recent weeks the Obama team has used its growing financial advantage to hit the airwaves in new states faster and more broadly than the Clinton campaign. Now the Clinton operation is attempting to shift the momentum, unleashing its first negative spot this week. But the fight ahead, which could rival advertising expenditures in the early states of Iowa and New Hampshire, could test the campaign's limited finances.

For months, the ad contest fit a stable pattern. Both candidates remained largely positive and stuck with consistent messages -- Mr. Obama spent aggressively and highlighted endorsements in an effort to raise his name recognition, while Mrs. Clinton spent a little less and relied on her own prominence among voters.

But with the race seemingly on the line March 4, the Clinton campaign followed Mr. Obama onto the air by just a day with local TV spots in Texas and Ohio. Wednesday, in a tonal shift that may be a sign of things to come, the Clinton campaign released the first attack-oriented ad of the Democratic race.

The ad, airing in Wisconsin, questions why Mr. Obama declined to debate Mrs. Clinton before the Feb. 19 election in the state. He has agreed to two other debates before March 4.

The Clinton campaign is betting that going toe-to-toe with Mr. Obama on the airwaves in Texas and Ohio, where Mrs. Clinton enjoys wide leads in the polls, will deny him the sort of uncontested opening that helped him narrow similar deficits in previous states. But doing so will be expensive.

Mr. Obama was up in Super Tuesday states first, and moved into following states first as well, says Evan Tracey, a campaign-media analyst at TNS Media Intelligence. "If money wasn't an issue, [the Clinton campaign] wouldn't have let him have head starts in a lot of these states," he said. To date, according to Mr. Tracey's calculations, Mr. Obama has spent around $36 million on TV ads, while Mrs. Clinton has spent just less than $30 million. The disparity has become more evident in the past two weeks, when the Obama team has outspent its rival by more than $5 million. Neither campaign would comment on their ad spending.

While Texas and Ohio are seen as demographically favorable terrain for Mrs. Clinton, who has shown strength among Hispanic and working- class voters, high-priced media markets in both states may cut against her dwindling resources. "Those two states could be an $8 million to $9 million proposition easily, and I doubt they have that much to spend," said Steve Murphy, a partner in Murphy Putnam Media Inc. and former strategist for Bill Richardson's campaign.

Clinton campaign officials denied that money problems will constrain their ability to field ads. "We have raised roughly $1 million a day since Feb. 1 and will have all the money we need to be competitive through March 4 and beyond," said spokesman Jay Carson. Mr. Obama, meanwhile, is going after some of Mrs. Clinton's strongest turf -- introducing Spanish-language spots in Texas to match Mrs. Clinton's in a bid for the Hispanic vote.

Frank Guerra, CEO of San Antonio advertising firm Guerra, DeBerry & Coody and media strategist for George W. Bush's presidential campaigns, sees the possibility that Hispanic voters could be open to Mr. Obama's message. "I think his message of hope and youthfulness will have an appeal," particularly to the 75% of Hispanic Texans under age 40, he says.

The Illinois senator has dominated young voters, Mr. Guerra points out, and the median age among Latinos in the state is 25. Significantly, Mr. Obama's Spanish-language radio ad is pitched to individuals: "Obama is talking to me, and he's talking to you," the announcer says. Mrs. Clinton's Spanish-language TV ad -- entitled "Nuestra Amiga," or "Our Friend" -- appeals to Hispanics to act as a community in voting for her.

In economically struggling Ohio, Mrs. Clinton is hammering an economic message that she has employed elsewhere. One of her new ads compares the economy under President Bush to a "trapdoor," similar to a spot she used before Super Tuesday that used a falling skydiver as an economic metaphor.

But she doesn't contrast her economic message to that of Mr. Obama, who has also begun focusing on economic issues. One big question is whether Mrs. Clinton's mildly negative spot, about Mr. Obama's unwillingness to debate her, will lead to more-critical ads. Clinton officials declined to discuss that question. "Once you run that first negative ad, you can't go back and unring the bell," says Mr. Tracey. "This will set a different tone now going forward into Texas and Ohio."