The Wall Street Journal-20080202-Politics - Economics- New Voters Key to Obama-s Strategy

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Politics & Economics: New Voters Key to Obama's Strategy

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With the Super Tuesday primaries looming, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama is banking on a wave of new voter registrations among African- Americans in the South to help him surge into a pivotal stand the following week, when Washington, D.C., Maryland and Virginia go to the polls.

Mr. Obama benefited immensely in his win in South Carolina last month from an upward spike in black registrations and a huge turnout of black voters. In recent weeks, African-Americans have registered at unprecedented rates across the South, where they make up a large portion, although not a majority, of the population in many states.

Black voting participation has steadily increased in the South over the past decade. In Louisiana and North Carolina, the rate of blacks registering to vote increased by more than a third compared with the rate of whites from 2002 to 2008. Black voters in Georgia surged 24% over the same period.

In Montgomery County, Ala., two-thirds of the 1,802 voters who registered in January are black, county officials say. In Fulton County, Ga., which includes Atlanta, 2,747 blacks registered in a single week, nearly double the number of white registrants, according to the state.

Recognizing that African-Americans alone can't deliver any states Tuesday, the Obama campaign is also trying to gain ground among Southern whites by aggressively courting supporters of John Edwards, who dropped out of the race after placing third in South Carolina. Obama campaign officials believe they have an edge over New York Sen. Hillary Clinton in attracting working-class and liberal voters who favored Mr. Edwards.

"He's got to do better among white voters," said Ronald Walters, a political-science professor at the University of Maryland and a senior adviser to Rev. Jesse Jackson's 1984 and 1988 presidential campaigns. Mr. Jackson won a majority of Southern states in both years. "He can't just do what Jesse did and win the nomination. . . . He's got to go for the whites, and doing it through Edwards can help."

The Obama campaign Friday announced the endorsements of several previous Edwards supporters in several Super Tuesday states.

Mrs. Clinton is making her own aggressive bid for Edwards voters, and trying to blunt the surge of enthusiasm for Mr. Obama among African-Americans. In Tennessee, where blacks make up about 16% of the population, both Mrs. Clinton and former President Clinton have blitzed the state -- with a focus on Memphis and other areas where black voters are key.

Mrs. Clinton is favored in polls conducted in the overwhelming majority of the 22 Super Tuesday states, including big prizes such as California, New York and New Jersey.

But a Gallup poll taken over three days this past week showed Mrs. Clinton's nationwide lead against Mr. Obama thinning to three percentage points. Obama strategists now are counting on amassing enough delegates in the largest states where Mrs. Clinton is likely to finish first so that the two remain close to even by the end of Tuesday.

Democrats distribute delegates from each state proportionally, based on the percentage of votes won by the candidates.

At stake Tuesday are 1,681 delegates. Currently, Mr. Obama leads the race with 63 delegates, followed by Mrs. Clinton's 48 delegates and Mr. Edwards's 26. The candidate who gets 2,025 delegates receives the nomination.

Mr. Obama maintains poll advantages in his home state of Illinois and Colorado. In Georgia, where blacks make up about 40% of the Democratic primary turnout, recent polls show Mr. Obama ahead with 52% support to 36% for Mrs. Clinton. Mr. Obama holds a narrow lead in Alabama, and polls show a tie in Connecticut. Potentially teetering states include Minnesota, where Obama organizers from Iowa next door and Illinois are deploying. Polling there says Mr. Obama has closed to within seven percentage points of Mrs. Clinton after trailing by 25 points in September. The state has a history of liberal voting, and Minneapolis voters appear likely to re-elect African-American Keith Ellison to Congress.

If that strategy works, Feb. 12 will become a critical day for Mr. Obama. Voting that day are Washington, D.C., Maryland and Virginia. All have substantial black populations and long histories of supporting African-American candidates in statewide and presidential races. With Mr. Obama shifting staff from South Carolina to those states and television and radio ads about to air there, the region is where he seeks to make his stand.

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Valerie Bauerlein contributed to this article.