The Wall Street Journal-20080130-Sunshine for McCain

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Sunshine for McCain

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For a change, the pollsters were right. John McCain won yesterday's Florida Republican primary, but the contest was close enough that the Arizona Senator and Mitt Romney will continue to slug it out -- and with these two, we do mean slug -- at least through next week's "Super Tuesday" contests in 21 states.

With his second victory in a row, Mr. McCain is now clearly the favorite for the nomination that eluded him in 2000 and that again seemed out of reach only three months ago. He turned back Mr. Romney thanks to the votes of seniors, veterans and self-described moderates and independents. He also did well in the Miami-Dade and Tampa strongholds of the state's popular Republicans who endorsed him, Senator Mel Martinez and Governor Charlie Crist. In Florida, the Republican establishment coalesced around the Senator like it never has before.

Mr. Romney nonetheless won narrowly among Republicans, and more broadly among conservatives, which at least gives him hope that he can be competitive next week. But it's notable that Mr. McCain won narrowly even among voters who said the most important issue was the economy, which Mr. Romney, the former businessman, had made his major focus.

The Florida result also showed once again that running against immigration, even illegal immigration, is the fool's gold of American politics. Mr. Romney won decisively among voters who considered it the most important issue, but that was too few voters to matter. Mr. McCain did well among Cuban-Americans and other Hispanics.

As for Mr. Giuliani, his distant third marks an amazing fall from what only weeks ago was a lead in the national polls. The former New York City mayor has been widely roasted for the strategic blunder of not fighting harder in earlier states. But in fact he did compete for a time in New Hampshire, only to see his fortunes fall amid negative reporting about his New York record and the revival of Mr. McCain.

The two candidates have competed for similar voters -- national security conservatives -- and it may be that nothing could have prevented Mr. Giuliani's fall once the surge in Iraq succeeded and helped to propel Mr. McCain's comeback. It is also no small irony that the mayor deemed too liberal by many social conservatives was the Republican candidate most reviled by the liberal press.

Mike Huckabee may trudge on despite his distant finish, but his campaign is also all but over. His message never hit home beyond his base of evangelical voters, and in retrospect his Pat Robertson moment in the national spotlight is mainly attributable to the fact that the Iowa GOP caucuses were so dominated by religious conservatives. His attacks on business and President Bush's foreign policy grabbed press attention, but they probably put a ceiling on his Republican support.

Now that the Republican field has winnowed to two, the voters next week face squarely the question of which man will be the best standard bearer against a motivated Democratic Party that is turning out in record numbers for its candidates. We'll know in a week if Mr. McCain, the perennial "maverick," can finally close the GOP sale.