The Wall Street Journal-20080112-Cross Country- Motown Showdown
Return to: The_Wall_Street_Journal-20080112
Cross Country: Motown Showdown
Detroit -- Michigan Sen. Carl Levin is rather pleased. Iowa and New Hampshire are yesterday's news. And now the spotlight is shifting to the Great Lakes State, which is suddenly politically relevant. This is what the Democrat has wanted for years, a consequential Michigan primary that could change the course of a presidential nomination process.
Of course, he had to risk party sanctions to schedule a Jan. 15 contest -- both Republicans and Democrats threatened to refuse to seat Michigan's delegates at their national conventions if the state held a presidential primary before Feb. 5. But that's of little concern now.
"It will be shown to be a hollow threat at the end of the process," says Mr. Levin. "They will be seated . . . it will be plain for all to see that the privileged positions New Hampshire and Iowa once held are over."
"[N]ext time," Mr. Levin adds, "all the other states will ask, why shouldn't we go on the same day as Iowa? The parties will have to adopt a system that's fair to all states."
This isn't really about fairness, of course. It's about giving political clout to his own state. And that's something Michigan, once a swing state that drew the attention of politicians with national ambitions, has been losing for years.
There is no more better illustration of this than the energy bill recently signed into law. The bill is boon for Iowa corn-producers because it imposes a national mandate for corn-based ethanol. It also forces Michigan's auto makers to meet a new mileage mandate that will likely cost them upwards of $85 billion over the next decade.
The mileage-mandate component of the energy bill might never have been included if Michigan was really a must-win presidential primary. While nearly every candidate in both parties genuflects at the ethanol altar in hopes of winning support from Iowa farmers, the same candidates universally support auto mandates, unafraid of Michigan repercussions.
As their industrial union base has shrunk, Democrats have forsaken blue collars for green elites. All the Democratic candidates paint automakers as global-warming villains. Even John Edwards, professed advocate of the working man, has suggested that SUVs -- most of which are built in U.S. plants -- be banned.
Most emblematic of the shift is Barack Obama, senator for Archer Daniels Midland, the corporate behemoth from Illinois that turns corn into ethanol. Thanks to the ethanol mandates Mr. Obama supports, ADM has been racking up profits.
In a speech to the Detroit Economic Club last May, Mr. Obama could barely hide his contempt for auto execs in attendance. The "change candidate" -- who had a gas-guzzling, powerful Chrysler 300 in his garage -- lit into the Big Three for producing the very vehicles he uses: "While foreign competitors were investing in more fuel-efficient technology for their vehicles, American auto makers were spending their time investing in bigger, faster cars. The auto industry is on a path that is unacceptable and unsustainable. And America must take action to make it right."
So much for discussing "Michigan issues."
Democratic candidates won't be campaigning in Michigan. Months of state Democratic Party bickering convinced all of the major candidates -- except Hillary Clinton -- to forego the race in deference to national party rules. Republicans, however, suffered no such dysfunction. As a tight Republican pack emerges from New Hampshire, Michigan suddenly looms as a make or break state for John McCain and Mitt Romney -- or the big state that makes Mike Huckabee a national threat.
Mike Murphy, a Republican campaign guru who cut his teeth in Michigan, says the state is the candidates' first true test because of its demographics. Michigan is a quilt of inner city blacks, suburban businessmen, Reagan Democrats, religiously conservative reformers and liberal college towns.
The state's unique mix of voters has produced surprises in the past. Eight years ago, Mr. McCain won the state's primary despite George W. Bush's strength nationally. Mr. McCain looks to do well again, but must contend with Mr. Huckabee, who has caught fire with west Michigan's vast grassroots evangelical network. Even without much of an organization in the state, he has made this a three-man race, says veteran Michigan pollster Steve Mitchell. Mr. Huckabee's theme -- "Americans want a president who reminds them of the guy they worked with, not the guy that laid them off" -- resonates here.
John McCain and Mitt Romney will likely refight the 2000 McCain/Bush battle. Like Mr. Bush, who won Republicans by a 2-1 margin, Mr. Romney is pushing to get out the GOP vote, and is trying to exploit the fact that his father was once a popular governor here.
But with an uncompetitive Democratic contest, Mr. Mitchell predicts that, as in New Hampshire, Mr. McCain will reap votes from independents and crossover Democrats, which he carried by respective margins of 2-1 and 3-1 eight years ago.
Mr. Romney's best chance is to go after Mr. McCain for his flip- flops on the Bush tax cuts. Michigan is aflame with anti-tax sentiment at the moment because Democratic Gov. Jennifer Granholm pushed through a big income tax increase last fall, sparking recall campaigns.
As the country has moved left in recent elections, Michigan too has become more reliably blue and ceased to be a swing state. But after two small, beauty pageant primaries, the Republican survivor of Michigan will deserve the crown of 2008 frontrunner.
---
Mr. Payne is a writer and editorial cartoonist for the Detroit News.
