The New York Times-20080126-Who Has the Optimism- The Have-Nots

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Who Has the Optimism? The Have-Nots

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THE future looks bleak in much of the developed world. It looks bright in the developing world.

Two opinion surveys released in connection with the World Economic Forum here showed optimism among corporate chief executives and the public in many emerging markets. But there are doubts in many of the world's leading economies.

In the United States, just 27 percent of the people questioned in the Gallup International Voice of the People survey said they expected the next generation to be more prosperous than the current one, while 43 percent expected less prosperity.

Fear that the future will be worse is even greater in some other countries. In France, only 11 percent of respondents said they expected a more prosperous future. The figures in Japan, Germany and Italy were almost that low.

But in Nigeria, a country whose oil wealth has so far done little for most of its citizens, 78 percent said they expected a more prosperous future. In Kenya, the figure was 67 percent. (All the polls were taken during the fourth quarter of 2007, before a disputed election led to instability in Kenya, and before financial markets worldwide suffered this month.)

The question asked of chief executives covered a much narrower issue -- whether they were very confident that their own company's revenue would grow over the next 12 months.

In the United States, where recession fears have been rising, 36 percent of the executives said they were very confident, a percentage that exceeded the figures for Japan, France and Italy.

By contrast, the figures exceeded 70 percent in Mexico, Russia and China. In India, the number was 90 percent.

The confidence of emerging markets was shown in sessions at the forum this week, as participants from India proclaimed that their momentum could carry them past any downturn in the United States.

One Chinese speaker said a recession in the United States might bring China's growth down to 9 percent a year, from the 10 to 11 percent he expected otherwise.

A lot of people are going to be very shocked if a recession in the United States does have a major impact on Asia, said Steven S. Roach, the chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, who has long been bullish on the region. But he also said he expected the American downturn to have a substantial impact in Asia.

The poll of individuals also asked whether they agreed with certain statements about business leaders, and found a wide variety of opinions.

Business leaders were generally viewed as more competent than political leaders, but they were also seen as dishonest by many.

The starkest view was in Germany, where only 6 percent thought the business leaders were not competent and capable, but 71 percent thought they were dishonest. In the United States, 49 percent said they thought business executives were dishonest, while 25 percent did not think they were competent.

The country with the highest regard for its business leaders appears to be Britain, where only 19 percent viewed them as dishonest, and 13 percent doubted their competence.

But perhaps some people do not think it is necessary to have competent business executives for a country to prosper. Nigeria, the country where 78 percent of the public expect the next generation to be more prosperous, had 40 percent of its respondents say business leaders were not competent. That was the most of any of the countries listed in the accompanying charts.

[Illustration]GRAPHS: The Future Looks Better in Emerging Economies (Sources: Gallup International Voice of the People, PricewaterhouseCoopers)