The Wall Street Journal-20080214-Campaign -08- Democrats- Complex Delegate Rules Cloud Issue of Who Leads

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Campaign '08: Democrats' Complex Delegate Rules Cloud Issue of Who Leads

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The Democratic party's delegate-allocation process is contributing to confusion over a basic aspect of the race: identifying a front- runner.

At least a half-dozen news organizations separately are tallying delegates, and none agreed on the numbers yesterday afternoon. CBS, NBC, ABC, CNN, the New York Times and the Associated Press, which supplies data to The Wall Street Journal and other publications, all agreed that Sen. Barack Obama was leading Sen. Hillary Clinton, but his margin ranged between 25 and 109.

Before Sen. Obama's sweep of eight states in races after Super Tuesday, Sen. Clinton was widely reported to hold the lead, but even then NBC placed Sen. Obama in front.

The disagreement stems from the party's complex rules, varying by state, for apportioning delegates. In primary states, delegates are assigned proportionally to voting in election districts -- which means they may not line up proportionally to statewide voting.

In other states, several steps stand between the local caucus votes and the assignment of delegates to the national convention. And about 20% of all Democratic delegates, known as superdelegates, are free to choose any candidate, regardless of the popular vote.

Most of the numbers include projections from nonbinding caucus votes, where Sen. Obama has excelled. The New York Times doesn't include these delegates from eight states, where Sen. Obama's combined delegate margin, according to NBC, is 67. "The New York Times counts only delegates that have been officially selected and are bound by their preferences," the newspaper says on its Web site.

Most counters also include those superdelegates who have expressed their preference, either in public statements or in response to the flurry of inquiries from news organizations.

By all counts, Sen. Clinton holds a wide lead in superdelegates -- ranging from 69, according to CBS, to 82, according to the Associated Press. NBC doesn't yet count superdelegates, reasoning that they often shift their allegiance to the front-runner, once one emerges. "They change their minds relatively rapidly," said Sheldon Gawiser, director of elections for NBC News. That contributes to Sen. Obama's 109- delegate lead in NBC's count.

Assigning delegates from primary states is less controversial, but the work is painstaking. Counters must establish not only who won each district, but also by how much. One delegate may remain up for grabs until it is determined whether, say, Sen. Obama won 62% or 63% of the vote in a certain district.

Republican delegate counts also differ, but they agree Sen. John McCain has a big lead and more than 800 of the 1,191 delegates needed to secure the nomination. Many states give all their delegates to the winner, limiting potential discrepancies in the count.