The Wall Street Journal-20080212-Campaign -08- Caucus System Muddies Assessment of Democrats- Shift of a Few Delegates Could Be Key This Year- Politics Is Indeed Local

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Campaign '08: Caucus System Muddies Assessment of Democrats; Shift of a Few Delegates Could Be Key This Year; Politics Is Indeed Local

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When Iowans caucused four years ago, Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry's share of the turnout should have earned him 21 of the state's 45 delegates to the 2004 Democratic National Convention. Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards should have received 17, and former Vermont Gov. John Dean should have taken seven.

But when the Iowa delegates showed up at the convention in Boston six months later, 39 delegates were committed to Mr. Kerry, four to Mr. Edwards and two to Mr. Dean.

In Washington state, meanwhile, Mr. Kerry seemed to have earned 46 delegates to Mr. Dean's 30 in 2004. But Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich snagged six of Mr. Dean's delegates by convention time and added a seventh by the final floor vote.

The caucus system -- which elects delegates only to local conventions, not the national convention -- makes it nearly impossible to calculate who is ahead in the race for the Democratic nomination. That is why estimates by news organizations and campaign-related Web sites vary so widely.

In the latest count by the Associated Press, New York Sen. Hillary Clinton has 1,136 delegates to 1,108 for Illinois Sen. Barack Obama. CNN puts the count at 1,148 for Mrs. Clinton and 1,121 for Mr. Obama. And the Web site RealClearPolitics.com calculates 1,143 for Mrs. Clinton and 1,138 for Mr. Obama.

Caucus delegates are coming under scrutiny for another reason: They could swing the results in a tight race. Caucus states will elect 418 of the 4,049 delegates at this summer's convention; a candidate must secure 2,025 delegates to win the nomination. Unlike delegates elected through a primary, caucus delegates can "realign" their votes, or abandon them by not showing up for the next step in what can be a long selection process.

In Iowa, caucus goers elected 13,485 delegates to 99 county conventions that will meet on March 15. Those delegates will elect 2,500 delegates to five congressional-district conventions that will meet on April 26 to select 29 delegates to the national convention in August, according to TheGreenPapers.com, which tracks the selection process. Those same 2,500 delegates will meet again on June 14 to elect another 16 statewide delegates.

Those delegates can be any registered Democrat who steps forward, but usually they are campaign or party activists who are known to the candidates' state officers.

The Obama campaign plans in the next few days to begin approaching the 4,207 delegates to county conventions that Mr. Edwards earned during the Jan. 3 Iowa caucuses in hopes of swinging them to the Illinois senator's side. "It's a soft ask. It's not edgy" or high pressure, says Jackie Norris, who is coordinating the Obama delegate process in Iowa.

Turning out Mr. Obama's 4,707 delegates will be just as important. The state Democratic party estimates that only about two-thirds of the delegates chosen on caucus night typically show up at county caucuses, which are the next level in the delegate-selection process in Iowa. Under local rules, those no-show votes could be up for grabs.

In states that hold primaries, delegate selection is fairly straightforward. Three-quarters of a state's delegates to the national convention are awarded to the candidates based on how well they did in each congressional district. The other 25% is awarded based on how well they did in the state at large. Of Georgia's 76 elected delegates, for example, 57 are awarded at the district level and 19 at the state level.

Those so-called pledged delegates can change their minds and vote for another candidate but seldom do.

Delegate selection is less straightforward in a caucus. Under Iowa party rules, delegates to the county convention are twice invited to realign themselves or switch sides before a final vote is taken to take account of developments since the caucuses -- a candidate drops out, for example, or another seems to be the overwhelming favorite nationally. Delegates to the district level also can switch sides. A delegate who doesn't show up can be replaced by an alternate who favors the same candidate. But if, for example, a Clinton delegate and that delegate's alternate both are absent, an Obama alternate could claim the seat.

That has never before been an issue, says Norm Sterzenbach, the party's political director. The Democratic nominee was usually decided by the time the convention was held, and any shifts were either to the side of the winner or, as in the case of Mr. Kucinich, were protest votes.

But a shift of even a few votes could be pivotal if Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Obama are in a dead heat after today's primaries in Maryland and Virginia and the March 4 primaries in Ohio and Texas. At that point, the contest could turn into a delegate hunt, with caucus delegates among the quarry.

That will put pressure on both candidates to turn out their own county delegates and to woo those elected on behalf of other candidates. In Iowa, in addition to Mr. Edwards's delegates, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson won 301 county delegates, Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware took 147, and Sen. Christopher Dodd of Connecticut won three.

The Obama and Clinton campaigns still have staffers in Iowa for the county conventions, but with the national attention high, the state party says it hasn't yet put together a list of delegates elected at the caucuses.