The Wall Street Journal-20080201-WEEKEND JOURNAL- Sports -- By the Numbers- A Game Watcher-s Game Plan

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WEEKEND JOURNAL; Sports -- By the Numbers: A Game Watcher's Game Plan

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Once the smoke clears from the barrage of pregame hype, Super Bowl XLII will still be mostly about the football. So let's get down to the facts. Here are 10 things you need to know to separate the game from the spectacle on Sunday.

1. Just how good are the Patriots?

The Patriots are good. The Grand Canyon is large. Bill Gates is well off. By Monday morning, the Patriots may well be able to lay claim to the title Greatest Football Team of All Time. They outscored their opponents by an NFL-record 315 points during the regular season. They broke the single-season scoring record with 589 points. Tom Brady broke Peyton Manning's single-season record with 50 touchdown passes, and his newly acquired favorite target Randy Moss broke Jerry Rice's single-season record with 23 touchdown catches. And, yes, they won every single game.

2. What did the Patriots learn from their first meeting with the New York Giants?

For one thing, they learned that it pays to keep the ball away from Giants wide receiver Plaxico Burress. In that first meeting, Mr. Burress caught four passes for 84 yards -- including a 52-yarder -- and two touchdowns.

3. And what did the Giants learn?

What the Baltimore Ravens learned before them: No lead is safe against the Patriots. After the Giants took a 28-16 lead in the third quarter, the Patriots responded with 22 unanswered points, holding the Giants to a single first down during that span.

4. Exactly how did the Giants get this far?

They got hot at the right time. They were decidedly underwhelming in the regular season. Only two Super Bowl teams -- the 1979 Los Angeles Rams and the 2003 Carolina Panthers -- outscored their opponents by less than the Giants' 22-point edge. But in the playoffs, what had been a mistake-prone offense and underachieving defense (which was second in the NFC in fewest yards allowed but 10th in points surrendered) each came into its own.

But snagging an NFC Championship and winning the Super Bowl are two very different things. The AFC is going for its fifth straight Super Bowl win -- and its seventh in eight years. And if you look at P-Wins (which run a team's point differential through a Pythagorean-like formula to estimate how many games a team should have won), four of this season's five strongest NFL teams were in the AFC -- led by the Patriots. Where do the Giants show up on the P-Wins list? A lowly 13th.

5. What should we watch for early?

Turnovers. In that giveaway/takeaway stat, the Giants were minus 9 during the regular season, 14th in the NFC. The Patriots were plus 16, third in the NFL, having given up only 15 turnovers, best in all of football. Eli Manning was tied for the league lead in interceptions with 20. But since the start of the playoffs Mr. Manning hasn't thrown a single pick. He'll have to keep that up against an opportunistic Patriots secondary.

6. Won't Mr. Manning's perceived lack of experience hurt the Giants?

Having taken the Giants to the postseason three years in a row, Mr. Manning has more playoff experience than many recent Super Bowl QBs. Kurt Warner of the Rams, Carolina's Jake Delhomme and Mr. Brady himself (the first time) had no playoff experience before their Super Bowl runs and they acquitted themselves admirably, giving their teams either a victory or a legitimate shot at one.

7. Mr. Brady and Mr. Manning aside, who are the players to watch?

Michael Strahan is New York's Media Day quote machine. But it's defensive end Osi Umenyiora, who collected 13 sacks this year, who will be charged with putting pressure on Tom Brady. If he can, it could force the Patriots to keep additional blockers to protect Mr. Brady's back and abandon the five-receiver sets that are all-but- impossible to defend against.

On the Patriots side, watch linebacker Mike Vrabel, who also does duty as a tight end. With eight career catches -- all for touchdowns -- he could be this year's model of William "The Refrigerator" Perry.

8. Do the Patriots have a weakness?

Despite Mr. Vrabel's offensive prowess, New England's linebacking corps, which also includes thirtysomething veterans Tedy Bruschi and Junior Seau, is aging and a little slow. Even with the addition of All Pro Adalius Thomas, they could at least in theory be vulnerable in short-pass coverage. But it wouldn't be wise for the Giants to count on that.

9. If the score remains close, what should we be looking for late in the game?

The Patriots may well miss kicker Adam Vinatieri, who booted a decisive field goal in each of their three Super Bowl victories. His replacement, Stephen Gostkowski, was 18 of 19 inside the 40 during the regular season, but only three of five past that. Giants kicker Lawrence Tynes was inconsistent close, missing four inside the 40, but a perfect 8 for 8 from the 40 and beyond.

10. Do the Giants have a chance, really?

A lot of things have to break right, but history does bode well for the Giants. Of the seven times that one Super Bowl team lost a close game to the other during the regular season -- by seven points or less -- six of those losses were avenged in the Super Bowl. And one can argue that the Patriots have underachieved on Super Sunday, each of their Super Bowl wins coming by a mere three points.

But then again, the Patriots haven't lost a game in a year. And along the way they beat the Colts, Steelers, Jaguars, Redskins and Giants. If the Giants win on Sunday, it will be one of the greatest Super Bowl upsets ever.