The Wall Street Journal-20080130-Campaign -08- Clinton-s Delegate Stance Sets Up a Fight- Some Democrats Fear a Racially Charged Convention Showdown Over Florida- Michigan

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Campaign '08: Clinton's Delegate Stance Sets Up a Fight; Some Democrats Fear a Racially Charged Convention Showdown Over Florida, Michigan

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Five months after all Democratic candidates agreed Florida and Michigan wouldn't get delegates to the August presidential convention, Hillary Clinton now says they should -- a reversal that would benefit her now that she has won both states, unchallenged, following yesterday's Florida primary.

But that, some Democrats fear, could ignite a racially charged fight rivaling conventions of the 1960s, should her contest against Barack Obama remain close to the end.

With perhaps several hundred delegates at stake toward the 2,025 needed for nomination, the New York senator's position "could lead to the mother of all credentials challenges" for the Michigan and Florida delegates at the convention, said Tad Devine, an expert on the Democratic Party's nominating process.

If the number were enough to defeat Illinois Sen. Obama, who is trying to become the first black president, "the most loyal constituency in the Democratic Party" -- African-Americans -- "will feel that they've been shut out of the party," he added. "And that will have huge repercussions -- not just at the presidential level, but in every race where African-American support can determine the outcome."

Such concerns are alive among Democratic officials even in Michigan and Florida, though the states' party leaders publicly support any fight that would lead to seating their delegates. Most Democrats, including Mr. Devine, say they believe the party's nominee will be settled short of such a convention showdown. "But we're a long way from settling it right now," Mr. Devine said.

At issue are penalties the Democratic and Republican parties separately levied against Michigan and Florida for setting their presidential-primary dates earlier than the parties' rules allow. To avoid front-loading the process, both parties sought to allow just four regionally balanced states -- Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina -- to hold contests in January. Other states were restricted to voting no earlier than Feb. 5.

Republicans penalized offenders by cutting their delegations in half but allowed the states' votes to go on. That is why Republican presidential candidates actively campaigned for Michigan's Jan. 15 primary and its 31 delegates, and for yesterday's Florida primary, where the prize was 57 delegates. But the Democratic Party stripped offenders of all delegates. In September, the Democratic presidential candidates signed a pledge refusing to campaign in the states.

Among the major Democratic candidates, only Sen. Clinton agreed to keep her name on Michigan's ballot. Supporters of Sen. Obama and former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina urged their voters to choose "uncommitted," in a bid to hold down her margin. The result was about 55% for Sen. Clinton and 40% uncommitted.

While delegates will be officially elected in a two-step process this spring, Sen. Clinton stands to get about 78 of the 128 at stake, with the rest uncommitted, according to state party Chairman Mark Brewer. Michigan would have an additional 28 super delegates -- party leaders such as Mr. Brewer -- who can vote for any candidate but typically reflect state voters' preference. The delegation plans to attend the Aug. 25-28 national convention and seek credentials.

Florida Democratic leaders will do likewise. The state was stripped of 210 delegates -- 185 to be pledged based on the results of yesterday's primary and 25 super delegates.

Yesterday, Florida Democrats were voting in record numbers for a party primary despite the delegate sanction, according to state and local officials. All the Democratic candidates' names were on the ballot, but none campaigned in Florida, in keeping with their pledge. According to early exit polls, Mrs. Clinton was winning about half of the vote yesterday, compared to about a third for Mr. Obama.

At party headquarters in Washington, Democratic National Committee spokeswoman Karen Finney said, "The bottom line is, there are no delegates at stake in Florida."

Moments later, top Clinton advisers held a conference call with reporters to argue "why Florida matters."

"When you have record numbers of people turning out, they're sending the signal that this matters to them," said Clinton spokesman Howard Wolfson. "Can we really envision a circumstance where we have a national convention and 48 state delegations are seated and two aren't?"

Many Democrats expected that ultimately the delegations from Michigan and Florida would be seated. But few, if any, expected the bitter and close contest that has developed between Sens. Clinton and Obama.

Having split the early states -- with Sen. Clinton winning New Hampshire and Nevada, and Sen. Obama taking Iowa and South Carolina -- the two are embroiled in a state-by-state delegate hunt. Meanwhile, Mr. Edwards is trying to win enough delegates to potentially play kingmaker.

Already the racial overtones are worrying party officials. The Clinton and Obama campaigns have traded charges of "voter suppression" in Nevada, South Carolina and Florida. Last week, before Saturday's South Carolina primary, Obama supporter Dick Harpootlian, a former state Democratic Party chairman, said he would be a poll watcher on primary day and "call the sheriff" if he saw Clinton supporters intimidating voters.

For his part, Sen. Obama said the nominee would be evident before the convention faced the delegate issue -- and he expected to be that nominee.