The Wall Street Journal-20080123-Politics - Economics- Two Votes Are Just the First Test for Italy-s Prodi
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Politics & Economics: Two Votes Are Just the First Test for Italy's Prodi
ROME -- Italian Prime Minister Romano Prodi is trying to defy conventional math and survive two confidence votes in Parliament over the next two days to save his government from collapsing.
Even if he survives the votes, it appears that Mr. Prodi will have such shaky support in Parliament that he will be unable to govern effectively.
"We wouldn't be surprised if this current crisis lasts longer and has strong consequences," said Sara Bertin, a sovereign-ratings analyst at Moody's Investors Service.
Mr. Prodi is facing this political crisis after a key ally of his center-left coalition defected, depriving him of a clear majority in the senate.
Mr. Prodi has vowed to stay on, declaring that the country badly needs political continuity in order to respond to the coming global economic slowdown.
The first confidence vote is set for today in the lower house of Parliament, where he still clings to a majority. A more crucial vote will be held in the Senate tomorrow. If he loses either, he will be forced to quit.
No matter what the outcome, Italy is headed for a protracted period of political paralysis.
If the Prodi government does collapse this week, President Giorgio Napolitano has the choice of calling early elections or naming an interim government, which would be charged primarily with overhauling the country's unwieldy electoral law before the country heads to the polls.
Either option would mean weeks passing before a new government is installed, at a time when the Italian economy is grinding to a halt and stock markets around the world are reeling.
Silvio Berlusconi, Mr. Prodi's predecessor and now leader of the center-right opposition, has been demanding elections immediately.
Mr. Prodi appeared determined to survive the confidence votes, a feat that would require relying on an intricate political calculus. Even before the current crisis, Mr. Prodi's grip on power was weak at best. He held a one-vote majority among the 315 elected members of the Senate.
After the defection Monday of Clemente Mastella, the departing justice minister, who headed a tiny party with three senators, Mr. Prodi's slim majority evaporated.
Yet he could squeak by a confidence vote by relying on support among the seven senators for life, who are appointees. At least four of them have regularly supported him in the past.
But their support and even their attendance in the Senate have been erratic. One, Rita Levi Montalcini, a Nobel prize-winning doctor, is 98 years old. Another, Sergio Pininfarina, appointed for his life achievements in the auto industry, is 81 and has hardly ever shown up for votes.
Moreover, President Napolitano has indicated that the government shouldn't need to rely on the support of life senators to win confidence votes.
If Mr. Prodi must depend on their support for his survival, it would be unlikely he could muddle through for long. "There is no further room to maneuver politically, but then our expectations were pretty low to begin with," said David Riley, an analyst at Fitch Ratings.
Mr. Prodi's first government collapsed in 1998, after 2 1/2 years, when he lost a confidence measure in the lower house by a single vote.
Defending the current 20-month-old government's record, he said Italian economic growth had been strong, while the country's huge debt had finally started to fall during his tenure. "This is a government that's been able to put the country back on its feet and put it on the right path again, making it come out of an emergency," he said.
