The Wall Street Journal-20080118-WEEKEND JOURNAL- Sports -- By the Numbers- Playoff Turf Wars
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WEEKEND JOURNAL; Sports -- By the Numbers: Playoff Turf Wars
In this weekend's NFC and AFC Championship games, the buzz in the stands and the broadcast booth will get louder every time one team moves the ball into the Red Zone. That's the area inside the opponent's 20-yard line, and once that line is crossed, it's make-or- break time for both teams.
There's much talk about the importance of a team's ability to maximize its opportunities once it moves the ball into the Red Zone. However, that ability might not be quite as pivotal as it would initially seem. During the just-completed regular season, stats compiled by Pro Football Weekly show that teams that got into the Red Zone scored an overwhelming 86.3% of the time. Even the worst team in this regard, the Kansas City Chiefs, scored 77% of the time.
Even if you look at touchdown-scoring percentage alone from the Red Zone, the numbers are surprising. The regular-season leader is the 7-9 New Orleans Saints -- at 72%. Of the top five teams in this stat, only the second-ranked New England Patriots made it to the playoffs.
The pattern is similar when it comes to which teams were best at shutting down an opponent that got into the Red Zone. The 8-8 Philadelphia Eagles led in preventing opponents' touchdowns within the Red Zone, and none of the seven top teams in this category made the playoffs.
So if success within the Red Zone isn't the determining factor, what is? Getting to the Red Zone -- and an all-but-certain scoring opportunity -- in the first place. Toward that end, we devised Red Zone Incursion Differential. RID takes the number of times that a team's offense moves the ball into the Red Zone, and subtracts the number of times that its defense allows its opponents into its Red Zone. While the stat is simple, it tracks very well with both regular season and post-season success.
The top nine teams in the regular-season RID rankings got to the playoffs. The lowest-ranked playoff team, the Washington Redskins, was 13th. Let's look at this weekend's championship game matchups with RID in mind.
New England vs. San Diego: No big surprise -- the Patriots led the league with a +31 RID (meaning they moved the ball into the opponent's Red Zone 31 more times than they allowed opponents into their Red Zone). Led by Tom Brady and Randy Moss, the offense took the ball to the opponent's doorstep 72 times, and a .694 touchdown percentage from within the Red Zone helped them rack up a league-best 50 Red Zone touchdowns. Their defense was merely excellent -- with 41 incursions (tied for sixth) and a .585 touchdown percentage that ranked 27th in the league.
The Chargers offer an interesting matchup. Their RID of +15 is tied for 4th in the NFL. And they did it with defense. Their 37 incursions allowed, the fewest in the AFC, trailed only Tampa Bay leaguewide. If the Chargers pull off an upset, it will likely be due to that defense.
Green Bay Packers vs. New York Giants: While the Giants' +13 RID ranks only seventh in the NFL overall, it's the best in the NFC -- and one better than the +12 RID of the Dallas Cowboys, their victims last Sunday. With 55 offensive incursions, the Giants are tied for second- best in the NFC with the Redskins, and are five ahead of the Packers. Once in the Red Zone, both teams had virtually identical touchdown percentages, just under 55%.
Green Bay's +7 RID shows that they've been just average in the regular-season battle for territory. But Packer fans can find hope in the team's ability to execute on defense. They led all NFC playoff teams in touchdown percentage allowed from within the Red Zone (48.8%).
So as you watch the NFL's final four battle for a trip to the Super Bowl, remember this: Big plays from within the Red Zone may be entertaining, but it's the team that consistently gets the ball from midfield to within striking distance of the opponent's end zone (and can prevent the other team from doing the same) that will likely earn the trip to Arizona.
