The Wall Street Journal-20080215-Campaign -08- Clinton Bets Big on Ohio and Texas- Candidate Gives Pair of Contests Must-Win Status
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Campaign '08: Clinton Bets Big on Ohio and Texas; Candidate Gives Pair of Contests Must-Win Status
Full Text (1133 words)Hillary Clinton's public bet that Ohio and Texas will be the firewall that salvages her presidential hopes from immolation is shaping up to be the biggest gamble of her campaign -- and perhaps the decisive one.
It was a wager that even critics say the New York senator had to make: Before last week's near draw with Democratic rival Barack Obama in Super Tuesday's 22 state contests, her campaign had foreseen trouble ahead for the rest of February. That rough patch is shaping up to be 10 straight defeats. Sen. Clinton needed to signal to supporters -- and, more important, to donors -- that there would be a place to stop the Obama momentum.
The March 4 votes in Ohio and Texas, with 389 total convention delegates between them, offered the first realistic prospect for Sen. Clinton to make her comeback. "We expect change to begin March 4," chief strategist Mark Penn reiterated this week.
In a rare bit of good news yesterday, she was finally declared the winner of the close Super Tuesday contest in New Mexico.
The Buckeye and Lone Star states favor Sen. Clinton. Notably, Texas Democrats include many Hispanics, while working-class voters dominate in Ohio -- the two groups that have been among the most supportive of Sen. Clinton in recent contests.
Yet each state offers opportunities for her rival, and both primaries are open to independent voters and even Republicans, who have supported Sen. Obama elsewhere. He arrives with momentum from his string of wins, all by wide margins, and more money for the airwave wars that began this week. In nearly every state that has voted to date, Sen. Clinton has led by double digits weeks before, only to see her leads melt by primary or caucus day.
Her elevation of Ohio and Texas to must-win status may well turn out to be a game-changer for the Democratic race. Instead of a long fight for delegates up to the August convention, which all sides had come to expect after no candidate scored an early knockout, their rivalry may be decided much as nominations have been in past years' contests -- based on perceptions: If Sen. Clinton doesn't win both states, she will be widely perceived to have lost, no matter that neither candidate yet has the needed 2,025 delegates.
"Momentum is a real phenomenon in the nominating process, and I think Obama has a real shot at beating her in both places," which would be "devastating," says Democratic consultant Tad Devine, a veteran of five presidential campaigns, who is neutral. Ohio Democratic consultant Dale Butland adds, "If she loses both, how does she justify going on?"
Even a split decision could be a mortal wound, some Democratic strategists say. But the Clinton campaign is planning to compete to the last contest: June 7 in Puerto Rico. Sen. Clinton continues to court the several hundred superdelegates -- party and elected officials -- who remain uncommitted, and to fight to overturn previously agreed-to penalties against Michigan and Florida so their pro-Clinton delegations can vote.
Next are Tuesday's Wisconsin primary and caucuses in Hawaii, Sen. Obama's childhood home; he is expected to win both. But already both candidates are stumping in Texas and Ohio.
Big Guns in Ohio
Sen. Clinton was in Ohio yesterday with two big assets: popular Democratic governor Ted Strickland and former senator and pioneer astronaut John Glenn. Two polls yesterday showed her leading Sen. Obama here by double-digit margins, but even Clinton supporters say they expect the race to tighten.
Gov. Strickland says Sen. Clinton has several advantages. One is that the senator, who emphasizes health care, education and relief from housing foreclosures, has "a message that has been, and will continue to be, appealing to working-class people." In Ohio, "we're working-class folks, by and large," he says, while Sen. Obama's edge has been among the most educated and affluent Democrats, as well as African-Americans.
The governor cites Sen. Clinton's support from Ohio unions, which have "a pretty significant influence" in party primaries. Most party- establishment figures are on her side, he said.
Beyond those factors, Ohioans don't "get caught up in hype," he adds, alluding to the Clinton camp's argument that Sen. Obama's momentum is powered by rhetoric and vague promises of change. "At this point I don't see a big Obama surge in Ohio," he says.
Columbus Mayor Michael Coleman does. The Obama backer said his candidate's momentum "changes the landscape here." That, combined with the Obama campaign's growing grass-roots organization and superior financial resources, makes for "a perfect storm."
"I think Obama wins," the third-term mayor flatly predicts. "We are underdogs in the state of Ohio, but we like being underdogs."
Mayor Coleman says his candidate can run strong in Ohio's cities and college campuses, and among black voters and independents, who are especially numerous in central Ohio. The mayor, who like Sen. Obama is African-American, says he realized the senator could win in Ohio when he won in mostly white and rural Iowa.
Mr. Coleman grew more confident before Super Tuesday, when he convened a statewide organizing meeting. He expected 150 people; more than 800 showed up. "I've not seen anything like this in all my years," he said. "When people start organizing themselves, there's something going on."
Texas Roots
Tuesday night, Sen. Clinton was losing big to Sen. Obama as returns came in for Maryland, Virginia and the District of Columbia. But by then she had reached El Paso, Texas, and was lifted by a rally of about 12,000 people, many of them Hispanic.
About a quarter of the state's Democratic electorate is estimated to be Hispanic, but former Texas Land Commissioner Garry Mauro, a Clinton supporter, says Hispanic turnout could reach as high as 40%. Sen. Clinton has won a large share of Hispanic votes in winning other states, including California and next-door New Mexico.
Mr. Mauro also notes Sen. Clinton's "longtime roots" in Texas, dating to her days canvassing voters here, with him, in the 1972 presidential election, and to her years as a familiar first lady of neighboring Arkansas.
Sen. Obama has "a lot of 'latte Democrats' for him, and African- Americans. But he doesn't go much beyond that," Mr. Mauro says.
But Obama strategists David Axelrod and Adrian Saenz note that Texas's complicated Democratic rules give them hope. About 40% of the Texas delegates will be picked in caucuses, and Sen. Obama has won nearly every caucus state to date given his proven grass-roots organizing edge. The remaining delegates are decided by a primary election.
Delegates are allocated to the winner of each of 31 districts. Districts with large black populations have more delegates than Hispanic districts. That is because districts with higher Democratic turnout in recent elections get more delegates. Hispanics historically have lower voting rates.
