The Wall Street Journal-20080213-Assessing the GOP-s Chances

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Assessing the GOP's Chances

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The political stars are aligned for Democrats to capture the White House in 2008. The idea of change is in the air. Grass-roots Democrats are more enthusiastic than they've been in decades, and are voting in record numbers in primaries and caucuses. Democratic candidates are rolling in money. What this means is unmistakable: There are legitimate grounds for Republican pessimism.

But Republicans should not despair or feel defeatist about the general election in November. They can win. True, the outcome isn't entirely in their hands. But Republicans can significantly improve their chances of winning by making smart campaign decisions. And events must also go their way, just as they did for John McCain, now the presumptive Republican presidential nominee.

Let's start with what Republicans need to retain the presidency. Mr. McCain has the biggest role, but other Republicans must help, including President Bush.

-- Independent voters. Conservatives unhappy over Mr. McCain's emergence as the Republican nominee have gotten lavish media coverage. But while they love to grumble and grouse, conservatives tend to be loyal Republicans who wind up voting for their party's candidates.

It was the defection of independents, not conservatives, that caused the Democratic landslide in the congressional elections in 2006. Their preference for Democrats jumped to 57% in 2006 from 49% in 2004. Mr. McCain must win many of them back, since independents constitute roughly one-third of the overall electorate.

Mr. McCain is well-positioned to do this, but it won't be easy. What independents like about Mr. McCain -- his maverick style and willingness to deal with Democrats -- is exactly what infuriates conservatives. He must walk a fine line, emphasizing issues like spending cuts and entitlement reform that appeal to both independents and conservatives.

-- A volunteer army. Mr. McCain needs one at least as large and powerful as President Bush's was in 2004. Against all odds, Mr. Bush's army of over more than two million volunteers overwhelmed the aggressive, well-financed Democratic effort to drive up voter turnout.

But 2008 is different story. Democrats relied on paid workers in 2004 and can do the same this year so long as rich liberals like George Soros are willing to foot the bill again. The Bush volunteers were motivated by a strong commitment to the president -- a commitment that doesn't extend to Mr. McCain. He'll have to recruit his own army, perhaps by enlisting veterans.

-- The right vice president. If elected, John McCain will be 72 when he takes office. (Ronald Reagan was a mere 69 on his first inauguration.) For obvious reasons, this makes Mr. McCain's choice of a vice presidential running mate all the more important.

His pick must not only be credible as a possible president, but also someone viewed by Republicans as a successor should Mr. McCain decide to serve only one term. And that's not all. His running mate must connect with economic and foreign policy conservatives -- and especially with social conservatives. In all likelihood, Mr. McCain will concentrate on attracting independents and downplay issues such as abortion and gay rights. Social conservatives, for whom these issues are crucial, will need a champion.

-- President Bush. Given his unpopularity, Republicans don't want the election to be a referendum on the Bush administration. In fact, one of former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush's reasons for staying out of the 2008 race is to prevent Democrats, just because a Bush is on the ticket, from doing exactly that.

But the president does have an important campaign role. On national security issues, he speaks with considerable authority and with a big megaphone. And there are bound to be opportunities for him to criticize or correct the Democratic nominee on the war on terrorism, terrorist surveillance, Iran, Iraq and the surge, Russia, and much else. The trick will be for Mr. Bush to pick his spots wisely (and infrequently) and not overplay his hand.

Now let's turn to matters that neither Mr. McCain nor Republicans can control. But if they break Mr. McCain's way, he'll have a better chance of becoming America's 44th president.

-- Iraq. Even on its worst days, the war was backed by a majority of Republicans, a few independents, and practically no Democrats. The success of the surge of additional troops and the counterinsurgency strategy pursued by Gen. David Petraeus has changed that, at least marginally. Republican support is up, independents are increasingly favorable, and Democrats remain solidly anti-war.

Iraq won't be a good Republican issue in 2008. But if it's a wash, Democrats will lose an issue that spurred their victory in 2006. And a wash is quite possible. Further gains on the ground in Iraq are likely, though hardly guaranteed. American and Iraqi troops have routed al Qaeda, pacified most of Baghdad, and have embarked on securing Mosul, the last urban enclave of insurgents and al Qaeda terrorists.

On the other hand, the Iraqi government of Prime Minister Nouri al- Maliki has been painfully slow to act. So Democrats argue that despite the surge's success, a troop pullout is necessary because the Maliki government hasn't brought about reconciliation of Shiites and Sunnis. Mr. McCain needs Mr. Maliki to move faster on reconciliation.

-- Recession. The good news for Republicans is that few predicted recessions actually occur. A recession would make economic security a bigger issue than economic growth, thus aiding Democrats. That may be illogical, but it's true. A recession has the potential for killing any chance of electing Mr. McCain and retaining a Republican presidency. Mr. McCain should pray for no recession.

-- Democratic ham-handedness. Aside from the surge, the best thing that happened for Republicans in 2007 was the performance of congressional Democrats. They were hyper-partisan, yet unsuccessful in achieving anything of lasting importance. This didn't improve Republican popularity, but it did drive down Democratic favorability. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi appears to have figured out what Democrats were doing wrong. Fortunately for Republicans, Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid doesn't have a clue. The more ham-handed Democrats are, the better for Republicans in 2008.

-- Hillary Clinton. No Democratic presidential candidate would be a pushover in 2008, save Dennis Kucinich. But the conventional wisdom in the political community is correct in regarding Mrs. Clinton as an easier opponent for Mr. McCain than Barack Obama. Half of America already dislikes her. That's a pretty good starting point for a winning Republican campaign.

Of course, Mr. McCain and Republicans can't affect the outcome of the Democratic race. Then again, Mr. McCain has a lucky streak going. Things had to break his way, opponents had to flop, the surge had to work, and earned media had to trump paid media for him to get this far. Maybe his luck will hold. Winning the White House may depend on it.

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Mr. Barnes is executive editor of the Weekly Standard and a commentator on Fox News Channel.