The Wall Street Journal-20080206-Campaign -08- McCain- Clinton Benefit as Economy Tops Concerns

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Campaign '08: McCain, Clinton Benefit as Economy Tops Concerns

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Voters in both parties went to the polls yesterday worried about the economy, and in three of the largest states John McCain and Hillary Clinton benefited.

About half of Democratic voters across four large states -- California, New York, Missouri and Georgia -- said the economy was the most important issue facing the country, and voters in the first three of those states favored Sen. Clinton, according to exit polls. The New York senator also won those who picked health care as their top concern.

But Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois, who has made much of his early opposition to the Iraq war, won the support of those who picked the war as their top concern, exit polls showed.

About half of Democratic voters in all four states said a candidate's ability to bring about change was the most important factor in their decision, and those voters heavily favored Mr. Obama. But Mrs. Clinton took a larger slice of voters who reported other top qualities, including that the candidate cares about people like them and has the right experience.

The data were from exit polls conducted by Edison/Mitofsky Research for the National Election Pool in four of the 24 states that held nominating contests yesterday. The data were based on interviews with voters early in the day and were subject to revision pending larger samples.

About half of Democratic voters in the four states said they would be satisfied with either candidate as their party's nominee. That left a substantial share of Democrats saying they would be unsatisfied if their pick lost.

In Georgia, Mr. Obama had a clear advantage among African-Americans, which powered him to victory. Mrs. Clinton won the white vote, but it wasn't enough to make up for her decisive loss among blacks. In California, she got about two-thirds of the Latino vote. Latinos made up a substantial minority of voters there.

About three in 10 Democratic voters in California, New York and Georgia said they decided whom to vote for in the past week, with a slightly higher percentage in Missouri. These late-deciding voters broke more for Mr. Obama in New York and California.

In the Republican race, in states where Mike Huckabee was a factor, the former Arkansas governor appeared to take a chunk of the conservative vote that might otherwise have gone to Mitt Romney, the former Massachusetts governor.

In exit polls from Georgia, for instance, conservatives made up the bulk of Republican voters, and Messrs. Huckabee and Romney divided their votes. The same split occurred in Missouri. Arizona Sen. McCain was the clear favorite of Missouri moderates.

Playing on his biggest strength, Mr. Huckabee ran well ahead with Georgians who said they were evangelical Christians as well as with those who believe that abortion should be illegal in all cases. He also won the votes of those who said they were most interested in a candidate that shared their values. The same pattern held in Missouri.

In states where Mr. Huckabee wasn't a factor, there was more of a one-on-one race between Messrs. McCain and Romney. In exit polls from California, most Republican voters described themselves as conservative, and they favored Mr. Romney. But the liberals and moderates who voted Republican leaned toward Mr. McCain, reflecting the emerging battle within the GOP over who should represent the party in November.

The economy was the top issue for Republicans in Georgia, Missouri and New York. Faced with a list of four possible issues, nearly half of Republicans in both Missouri and New York cited the economy as their top concern. Across all states voting yesterday, Republicans had a more positive view of the economy than Democrats. Though few Republican voters labeled it excellent, four in 10 said its condition was good compared with fewer than one in 10 Democrats who said it was excellent or good.

In Georgia and Missouri, Messrs. McCain and Romney divided votes of those most concerned about the economy. In California, though, immigration tied with the economy as the top issue. Mr. Romney won those voters who picked immigration and Mr. McCain took those most worried about the economy.

Immigration was a distant second-place issue among Republicans in Georgia, with Mr. Romney winning that slice. Nearly half of Georgia voters said illegal immigrants should be deported rather than allowed to stay as guest workers or as applicants for citizenship. Mr. Romney easily won the deportation crowd over Mr. McCain, who championed a bill that would have allowed for a guest-worker program and for a path to citizenship for those in the U.S. illegally today.

Not many Republicans said their top concern was choosing a candidate that could win in November. But those who did favored Sen. McCain.