The Wall Street Journal-20080202-Cross Country- McCain-s Golden Opportunity
Return to: The_Wall_Street_Journal-20080202
Cross Country: McCain's Golden Opportunity
Full Text (864 words)Santa Ana, Calif. -- In presidential primary politics, California is typically good for one thing: raising money. There's plenty of campaign cash to be had in Newport Beach or Hollywood. However, competing for votes in a state that holds its primary long after Iowa and New Hampshire is usually a waste of time.
Not this year. Suddenly, California matters a great deal, as voters head to the polls in nearly two dozen states on Tuesday. The state is especially important for Republicans, who held their final presidential debate at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, Calif., earlier this week.
For the GOP, it is now a two man race. And the single biggest question plaguing the McCain campaign is this: Can the "maverick" Republican win over conservative voters? Here, in the Golden State, John McCain has an opportunity to definitively answer that question.
Unlike in other states (and California's Democratic Party's primary), independents can't vote in the Republican primary here. The California GOP might be smallish -- 35% of the state's registered voters are Republicans -- but it's solid.
Republican voters here are a lot like their cohorts in more conservative states. Sure, Rudy Giuliani led the polls here before his nationwide collapse, and now Mr. McCain, according to a recent Los Angeles Times poll, holds a 39% to 26% lead over Mr. Romney. But while Mr. McCain is arguably a more "liberal" candidate than Mr. Romney, that's not necessarily the perception among mainstream Republican voters.
Outsiders often point to Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, a champion of "post-partisan" politics, as the prime example of Left Coast Republicanism. But he is actually a Republican aberration. Mr. Schwarzenegger first won office in an unusual recall election in 2003. He is now disdained by his party for abruptly swinging to the left after his government-reform initiatives were defeated in November 2005. He isn't the product of Republican politics. He was something imposed on the Republican Party.
Thomas A. Fuentes, who led the Orange County GOP from 1984 to 2004, explains it this way: "The conservative nature of the Republican legislators, in both the state Senate and Assembly, more reflects the voices of the party's grassroots in the communities of California [than the views of the governor]. The GOP legislators are at constant loggerheads with the governor. He is a liberal. The legislators are conservative. And, so are the Republican voters."
One leading Republican summed up the governor's influence within his party for me by calling it "a big, fat zero." He tries to be influential -- such as endorsing Mr. McCain. But note the endorsement only came after Mr. McCain took a lead in the polls. Unlike in Florida, where Republican voters were swayed by their governor's endorsement of Mr. McCain, here the governor is following popular Republican opinion, not setting it.
California is a polarized state. Looking at the Americans for Democratic Action's congressional voting record, in other states one finds many members with middle-of-the-road grades. In California, the list is filled with Republican members of Congress who get 0s (the worst grade, in the liberal group's estimation) or maybe 5s or 15s, and Democrats who get 100s, or 90s and 95s.
Among Republicans, "the Reagan magic still is important," explains Shawn Steel, a former state GOP chairman. "There's been no shift to the left among Republicans. Those who are alienated have already left the party." Mr. Steel pointed to some obvious regional differences, though, with northern coastal Republicans more moderate than those in the inland areas and Orange County (still the nation's most Republican large-population county).
The issues, trends and demographics in Republican California are remarkably similar to those in other states. California Republicans are influenced by national trends, explains Doug Kmiec, a professor of constitutional law at Pepperdine University, a former Reagan adviser and current supporter of Mr. Romney. So as Mr. McCain rises elsewhere, he rises here also. National security is a dominant topic in California, home to many large military installations. "Californians like people who served their country in the military and McCain is not shy about reminding people about that service," Mr. Kmiec adds.
The economy is an enormous concern now as Californians are hit by falling home values, but that's happening across the country. Immigration is a "visceral issue" that causes angst among some core Republican voters, but Mr. Kmiec doesn't see it as decisive. News stories will focus on the role of the Latino vote, but most estimates put the percentage of Latino voters at 10% or less of the Republican electorate. That demographic story is a non-issue in California GOP politics.
What it comes down to is this: If Mr. McCain pulls off a win in California, he will do it by competing for support within a conservative Republican base that looks a lot like the Republican Party in red states across the country.
On Super Tuesday, within the closed confines of the GOP primary, traditional Republican voters will choose a nominee based on remarkably typical Republican concerns. That means whoever wins here will likely be able to win among Republicans anywhere.
---
Mr. Greenhut is a columnist for the Orange County Register in Santa Ana, Calif.
