The Wall Street Journal-20080122-The Economy- CAPITAL JOURNAL- GOP Can Revive Curbed Enthusiasm
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The Economy; CAPITAL JOURNAL: GOP Can Revive Curbed Enthusiasm
America's economy isn't the only thing that needs a stimulus. So do Republican voters, it appears.
In the wake of Saturday's South Carolina primary -- a high-profile contest in a presidential campaign that seems to have captured the nation's fancy overall -- a clear pattern now has emerged: Republican voters simply aren't turning out in the numbers you would expect.
At a time of many bad omens for Republicans, this may be the worst. Right now Democrats look like the eager beaver who shows up at the office early just to get going, while Republicans more resemble the guy who just might stay home in the event of a few sniffles. The silver lining for Republicans is that there may, in fact, be some cures available for their intensity-deficit disorder.
In South Carolina, just over 430,000 voters turned out to cast ballots in the Republican primary. That is down almost 25% from the 573,101 who showed up in 2000, the last time there was a hotly contested Republican primary in the state.
In fact, Sen. John McCain actually won this year's South Carolina primary with some 97,000 fewer votes than he got when he lost the state to George W. Bush in 2000. At the time, that was seen as a crushing defeat.
The South Carolina turnout could be attributed to poor weather on primary day, or to the fact that there wasn't a simultaneous Democratic primary to generate more excitement -- except that it fits into a broader pattern. Republicans simply aren't showing up this year in the numbers you might expect, while Democrats are.
In Iowa's caucuses, Democrats came close to doubling their previous record turnout. Republicans, by contrast, attracted only about half as many voters to their caucuses and topped their previous high by just 9%.
In New Hampshire, for the first time ever when both parties had contested primaries, more voters showed up to vote Democrat than Republican. Republican turnout actually was down slightly from 2000 -- the last hotly contested Republican race there -- while Democratic turnout was up almost 29% from 2004.
And in Michigan, Republican turnout for the primary was down almost 400,000, to about 868,000, from 2000. Again, there was no simultaneous Democratic primary to help pump up interest, but that doesn't account entirely for such a dramatic falloff. (Nevada's Saturday caucuses are harder to analyze because they have never been conducted in quite the same way or at the same time as this year's.)
This problem is hardly lost on party leaders, who refer to an "intensity gap." Republicans have problems on both sides of this gap: While Democrats are unusually pumped up, their own voters seem dispirited.
For their part, Democrats are energized by their disdain for President Bush, by their unhappiness with the direction of the country and by what appears to be real enthusiasm for their candidates.
Republicans, on the other hand, seem discouraged by the overall unpopularity of President Bush, still their party's maximum leader, and underenthusiastic about their field of presidential hopefuls. This has even led to some whispering, implausibly enough, about whether there is out there, somewhere, a different Republican candidate who could emerge at the 11th hour to excite the party. (Newt Gingrich, where have you gone?) An underexcited Republican party also might further encourage an independent presidential bid by New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg.
In fact, though, there also are several factors that could turn this situation around for Republicans.
First, yes, it's true that there is no candidate who excites all of the party's broad conservative base. To overgeneralize, Sen. McCain and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani please national-security conservatives, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee excites social conservatives and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney appeals to economic conservatives. Often, though, potential nominees seem unable to excite an entire party -- until they actually get the nomination. At that point, every nominee gets a clear shot at turning up the excitement level for himself.
Second, while Sen. McCain -- who now appears to be the leading Republican contender -- still engenders doubts among social and economic conservatives, those doubts are offset by the fact that he has the ability to excite and pull into the party independents and wavering Republicans.
Put another way, the real need for Republicans this year may be less to excite the traditional base than to expand it in the post-Bush era, and Sen. McCain might be capable of doing just that. If there's a new national-security scare in the midst of this campaign, or new terrorism fears, Sen. McCain's national-security appeal would only be enhanced.
Finally, there's always the prospect that Democrats just might do the energizing for the Republicans. Republican pollster and consultant Neil Newhouse notes that one path toward greater intensity is "running against a Democrat in the general election who generates real negative passion among Republicans." He adds: "Luckily, such a candidate exists: Hillary Clinton." She registers a whopping 87% unfavorable rating among the party faithful, he notes.
At the same time, a drawn-out and divisive primary fight between Sen. Clinton and Illinois Sen. Barack Obama still has the potential to disillusion and discourage some Democrats about their ultimate choice. "There's only one direction that Democratic enthusiasm can go, and that's down," Mr. Newhouse says.
