The Wall Street Journal-20080118-Huckabee and the Values Vote
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Huckabee and the Values Vote
Tigerville, S.C. -- This should be home for Mike Huckabee. North Greenville University is a Baptist-affiliated school ("Where Christ Makes the Difference") and its students have turned out to see the upstart Republican make his presidential pitch. Toby Keith's "How Do You Like Me Now?" is blaring from the speakers, and there's a boisterous mood in the dining hall.
These are the evangelicals Mr. Huckabee won in Iowa, and on whom he's placing a big bet here in South Carolina. Yet while the kids dutifully clap and cheer his speech, many later admit they have yet to decide whom they'll support in the Republican primary tomorrow. "The majority like that he's a Christian," says junior Benjamin Fleming of Mr. Huckabee, who is currently running behind John McCain in the polls. "But support really varies from student to student." A friend agrees and adds, "it's sort of surprising given this is a Christian school."
The conventional story line since Mr. Huckabee won Iowa is that this was the year religious voters asserted a new dominance over the Republican Party. Mr. Huckabee was a man who "came from them, not to them," and would appeal to the many evangelicals who'd long felt they'd been taken for granted. Liberal observers gleefully predicted this religious momentum would further escalate tensions within the Reagan coalition.
Instead, recent polls here suggest that religious voters are proving to be more independent-minded. Mr. Huckabee has found himself having to scrap with Fred Thompson, Mitt Romney and even Mr. McCain for the 50% to 60% of voters in the Republican primary who describe themselves as evangelicals. And it is far from clear he's locked up that vote.
He didn't in Michigan. Mr. Huckabee did well with churchgoers there, but the bigger story is so did other Republicans. According to exit polls, of the 39% of Michigan voters in the GOP primary who described themselves as born-again or evangelical, Mr. Huckabee won 29%. A full 57% instead voted for either Mr. Romney (34%) or Mr. McCain (23%). Of those who said a candidate's "religious beliefs matter a great deal or somewhat," Mr. Romney won 36%, Mr. McCain 26% and Mr. Huckabee 25%.
This shouldn't come as a surprise. One problem with the conventional story line is that the media have a tendency to lump evangelicals together, despite the fact that they are split by many ideological, political and even doctrinal, differences. For evidence, consider how far and wide religious outfits and leaders have scattered their Republican endorsements.
Some religious voters care most about a candidate's voting record on abortion. Ergo the National Right to Life Committee's high-profile pick of former Tennessee Sen. Thompson. Some care far more about electability, and stopping a Democratic White House. This explain why Bob Jones III threw in behind Mitt Romney ("This is all about beating Hillary," Mr. Jones told a South Carolina newspaper), or why the Rev. Pat Robertson supports Rudy Giuliani. Some younger evangelicals increasingly believe protecting the environment and the poor are Christian moral obligations. Mr. Huckabee's populist rhetoric has tapped into that category.
The conventional story line has also ignored the problem of Mr. Huckabee as a candidate. The former governor did well in Iowa in part because he surged late and stayed a few steps ahead of a critical examination of his positions and record. The evidence in South Carolina suggests that as religious voters have learned more about him -- and as they've started to meditate on the economic and national- security stakes in this race -- they're taking a good, hard look around.
They've got plenty of choices. Mr. Thompson has been successfully pounding Mr. Huckabee in debates and ads as a "liberal" on economic and immigration. Mr. Romney, at a rally in Columbia on Wednesday, ran hard on his promise to "strengthen families."
Even Mr. McCain -- who is benefiting from this social-conservative dogfight (leaving him with much of the independent and moderate vote that went for him in 2000) -- rolled into South Carolina with a belated pitch for the core Republican base. At an event in Greenville, the Arizonan unveiled an endorsement from conservative Oklahoma Sen. Tom Coburn, and highlighted his pro-life record and his promises to appoint strictly conservative judges.
Stan and Donna Snyder, insurance agents and self-described "evangelical Christians" from Greenville, showed up for that rally. By the end, Mrs. Snyder, who said she'd examined all the candidates, was leaning toward Mr. McCain. She explained that value issues were "very important" to her. Yet when it came to Mr. Huckabee, "I've heard he raised taxes, and I don't feel he really has the leadership on issues" like national security. Mr. Snyder said he was bothered that Mr. Huckabee was no longer a minister. "If God called him, why didn't he stay?" he asked.
This indecision now has Mr. Huckabee in a pickle. He needs to shore up religious votes, but he also needs to start appealing to other parts of the Republican base. One of the more notable numbers out of Michigan (where Mr. Huckabee placed third) was that of the 61% of primary voters who said they were not born again or evangelical, he claimed a miserable 8%.
This may explain why Mr. Huckabee delivered a surprisingly nonreligious speech at North Greenville University. While he did touch on issues of abortion and gay marriage, he devoted much of the talk to economic and military concerns. When he finished, President James Epting felt compelled to remind the Arkansan that he was visiting a Christian school, and asked him to explain how he came to find religion. (Mr. Huckabee did, and with great charm and sincerity.)
In this crazy GOP race even a day is an eon, and if Mr. Huckabee has a shot of breaking through to more Republicans, it's here. The polls show that a significant number of voters remain undecided. But it's increasingly clear that Mr. Huckabee will have to earn those votes by convincing voters of his policies, not simply by the mere fact that he is a former minister.
