The Wall Street Journal-20080111-WEEKEND JOURNAL- Sports -- By the Numbers- Icing an NFL Playoff Victory
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WEEKEND JOURNAL; Sports -- By the Numbers: Icing an NFL Playoff Victory
This weekend's NFL divisional playoffs will place the focus of the football world on two storied meteorological sites. On Saturday afternoon, the Green Bay Packers will face off against the Seattle Seahawks at Lambeau Field, where the Packers defeated the Dallas Cowboys in the famous 1967 NFL Championship matchup known as the Ice Bowl -- the game-time temperature was 13 degrees below zero. On Saturday night, the New England Patriots take on the Jacksonville Jaguars at Gillette Stadium, a stone's throw from the old Foxborough Stadium -- where, on their way to the Super Bowl XXXVI title, they won a snow-covered overtime victory over the Oakland Raiders in a divisional playoff game.
This weekend's games aren't likely to be played in such extreme conditions (predicted game-time temperatures are 30 degrees F with snow showers at Lambeau Field, 28 degrees F at Gillette Stadium). But when it comes to Mother Nature as a potentially active participant in these games, the question remains: Does a team whose home playoff games are often played outside in cold weather have a special home- field advantage?
In general, home teams have a strong edge in the playoffs -- inside or outside, warm weather or cold. From 1980 through last season, home teams won 69.1% of the playoff games in all rounds up to the Super Bowl. Even given the fact that the home-field advantage goes to the team with the better record, this is a significant edge.
But is there a subplot within that trend, with snowbelt cities like Pittsburgh and Chicago holding an added edge? We divided those playoff games into cold-weather sites (a cold-weather city was deemed to be one with 15 inches or more of average snowfall per year) and warm- weather sites (the remaining cities, plus teams such as Detroit, Minnesota and Indianapolis that play in a dome).
Two trends emerged. The first is that the edge, albeit a small one, actually goes to warm-weather teams. Warm-weather teams have won 70.4% of their home playoff games, while cold-weather teams prevailed 68.9% of the time at home. The warm-field advantage has grown in recent seasons, following an almost-freakish run from 1987 through 1991, in which cold-weather teams (led by Buffalo, Denver, Cleveland and Cincinnati) went 14-0 at home in AFC divisional playoffs and championship games.
Also, the cold-weather advantage doesn't apply across the board. For every team like the Denver Broncos (10-3 in home playoff games since 1980 at frigid Mile High Stadium and Invesco Field), there's a team like the Chicago Bears, who've posted a 6-6 home playoff record at blustery Soldier Field.
How should this play out in this weekend's games? Once upon a time, the Packers had one of the strongest home-field advantages in all of sports, having won their first 13 playoff games played in Green Bay. However, that edge has evaporated in recent years, with the Packers losing two of their last three at home.
As for the Patriots, it's more bad news for the rest of the AFC. They've been 9-0 at home in the playoffs since 1980. On the other hand, the Cowboys sport a similarly strong 11-2 edge at home with no help from the weather.
And if you step back from the frozen-field-advantage myth, that makes sense. In cold weather, both teams are likely to fall prey to fumbles, dropped balls, buffeted passes and windblown kicks -- unpredictable elements that can often give a visiting underdog a brief, but significant advantage.
Warmer weather, on the other hand, can offer a more even playing field, which tends to help the stronger team. So, whether or not the mercury drops or the snow blows in, the Patriots and Packers should still be able to use their home-field advantages to move on to another week of midwinter football.
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Corrections & Amplifications
The Green Bay Packers played two of their first 13 home playoff football games in Milwaukee. The "By the Numbers" column in Friday's Weekend Journal incorrectly said that all 13 games were played in Green Bay, Wis.
(WSJ Jan. 16, 2008)
