The New York Times-20080129-Turbulence Is Predicted For New Chief In Thailand

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Turbulence Is Predicted For New Chief In Thailand

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With the selection of Samak Sundaravej as prime minister on Monday, Thailand has completed a transition from military rule back to elected government. But analysts predict that the bumpy ride is not over for Thai politics: Mr. Samak's tenure is likely to be tempestuous and his administration fragile.

An outspoken political veteran who is prone to profanity, Mr. Samak is disliked by the Thai press and intelligentsia and is deeply resented by civil rights groups for his support of deadly crackdowns on peaceful protesters in the 1970s and 1990s.

He has described himself as a proxy of Thaksin Shinawatra, the prime minister who was ousted in a September 2006 coup. As the leader of the People Power Party, which won a plurality of votes in elections on Dec. 23, Mr. Samak will lead a coalition of parties that together control about 65 percent of the seats in the House of Representatives.

In the vote for prime minister in Parliament on Monday, Mr. Samak beat the candidate from the rival Democrat Party, Abhisit Vejjajiva, 310 to 163.

Despite his victory, there is already talk that Mr. Samak could soon be replaced by someone more conciliatory. The Thai news media have been speculating daily about who may emerge as a compromise candidate for prime minister.

I think the Thaksin group will try to find a way to get rid of him over the next few months, said Jon Ungpakorn, a former senator and democracy advocate, referring to Mr. Samak. He was an asset in the election. He will be a liability as prime minister.

The coalition came to power on a populist platform that was anti-elite and anti-military and geared toward a continuation of Mr. Thaksin's programs focusing on poverty reduction in rural areas. That platform fits with Mr. Samak's earthy, irreverent, man-of-the-people image. But it is at odds with much of his political experience and background.

Although Mr. Samak criticized the military and supported democracy during the campaign, throughout his early years in politics he was best known for his extreme right-wing stands against Communists and his support of deadly crackdowns in 1976 and 1992 on students and pro-democracy campaigners who were demanding greater civil liberties.

Despite his street-fighter style, Mr. Samak is a member of the Thai elite, a law graduate from one of the country's most prestigious universities.

The 2006 coup and its aftermath have sometimes been described as a battle between Mr. Thaksin and the Thai elite, including the Thai royal family.

Mr. Samak, 72, has a foot in each camp. He has been allied with Mr. Thaksin, a former telecommunications tycoon, since Mr. Thaksin came to power in 2001, but remained a stalwart royalist. His family has longstanding ties to members of the royal family.

Mr. Samak's uncle was a physician to King Vajiravudh, who reigned from 1910 to 1925. The king bestowed his last name, Sundaravej, on the family.

During his three decades in politics, Mr. Samak has been deputy prime minister three times, minister of transportation twice, interior minister and deputy agriculture minister.

Before entering politics in the 1970s he held a wide variety of jobs, including tour guide in Bangkok, a salesman of John Deere tractors and a public relations officer for two years for the Israeli Embassy in Bangkok.

He is under investigation in connection with accusations of corruption in the procurement of fire trucks while he was governor of Bangkok from 2000 to 2004. If convicted, he would be barred from office.

After the vote in Parliament, Mr. Samak played down the significance of his victory, calling for reporters to respect his privacy, The Associated Press reported. Nothing will change in my life, Mr. Samak said. There will be no celebration over my appointment.

Mr. Abhisit was conciliatory in defeat, saying it was now time to move forward with a new government in which his party would serve in the opposition.

It is time to start governing and to restore confidence, The A.P. quoted him as saying. It is also time to install honest people who can work within the system so that we don't get back into the past.