The Wall Street Journal-20080215-Campaign -08- McCain-Obama Race Could Redraw Electoral Map- Black Turnout Might Put South in Play- New Math in West

Return to: The_Wall_Street_Journal-20080215

Campaign '08: McCain-Obama Race Could Redraw Electoral Map; Black Turnout Might Put South in Play; New Math in West

Full Text (748  words)

In recent presidential elections, the electoral map largely has been fixed, with certain regions predictably loyal to one party or another and the competition narrowed to fewer than 20 battleground states.

But Barack Obama's success in rallying African-Americans and John McCain's difficulty with conservative evangelicals raise an intriguing question: Would a general election between the two put additional states -- particularly in the South -- into play?

Mr. Obama is still locked in a race with Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination. A general election between her and Mr. McCain could also draw lines in new ways, given Mrs. Clinton's strong appeal to women and Hispanics.

If Mr. Obama wins the nomination, it is far from certain that he could claim even a single Southern state. But even making the race there competitive would be a victory of sorts by forcing Mr. McCain to spend time and money defending states that other Republicans, including President Bush, were able to take for granted.

"It's certainly likely some of these Southern states are going to be much more competitive than before," said Merle Black, an expert on Southern politics at Emory University.

The last Democratic presidential candidate to make inroads in the South was Bill Clinton. Together with Al Gore, he picked up their home states of Arkansas and Tennessee, plus Kentucky, Louisiana and, in 1992 only, Georgia. But Mr. Gore running in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004 were shut out.

This year, political strategists say Virginia, which already is trending Democratic, could be pushed across the line. Other possibilities include North Carolina, Tennessee and Mississippi.

Mr. Obama himself made the claim back in August. "I'm probably the only candidate who, having won the nomination, can actually redraw the political map," he told a voter in New Hampshire who was skeptical of his general-election appeal. At that time, he predicted that black voter turnout would balloon by at least 30% nationwide if he won the presidential nomination.

The Democratic primaries to date offer evidence to support the claim. Overall Democratic participation in primaries to date has shattered records and overwhelmed Republican turnout. In some states, African-American turnout has swelled even more dramatically.

In South Carolina, overall Democratic turnout increased by 81% this year compared with the 2004 primary; among blacks, it ballooned by 113%. In Georgia, overall Democratic turnout rose by 71% from 2004; among blacks, the rise was 90%.

"If Obama is the nominee, he'll draw the largest turnout among African-Americans that we've ever seen in American history," Mr. Black said.

At the same time, Mr. McCain, the senator from Arizona, has an uphill climb with evangelical Christians and other conservatives who make up much of the base of his party. In Virginia's primary on Tuesday, four in 10 Republican voters described themselves as evangelical, and Mr. McCain won just 30% of those votes. Most went to former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who has little chance of winning the nomination. Mr. McCain also lost those describing themselves as very or somewhat conservative.

On the other hand, Mr. McCain might enter a race versus Mr. Obama with an advantage among Hispanic voters. During the primaries so far, Mr. McCain has done well with Hispanics, while Mr. Obama has not. That could change the calculations in the Rocky Mountain West, Republican territory where Democrats have seen an opening.

In the South, many analysts see Virginia as a state where either Mr. Obama or Mrs. Clinton could make a serious run, but where Mr. Obama's appeal to African-Americans could offer an extra boost. Virginia has voted Republican in all but one presidential election since 1952, but in recent years it has elected two Democratic governors in a row and ejected a Republican from the U.S. Senate.

Another possibility: North Carolina, where Democrats control the governor's office and both chambers of the legislature. Mr. McCain is likely to win, but Mr. Obama could put up a fight, said Ferrel Guillory, an expert on Southern politics at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. "Republicans would have to defend the state if it's Obama," he said.

Analyst Charlie Cook of the Cook Political Report was more skeptical of the idea that Mr. Obama could contend in the South, especially in states such as Mississippi, Georgia and Tennessee. "White voters in Mississippi don't vote Democratic. They just don't," said Mr. Cook. He also believes that the greater the black turnout, the more anti- Democratic white voters become. Possible exceptions include Florida and Virginia.