The Wall Street Journal-20080213-Campaign -08- But Which Democrat Can Win It All in November-- Clinton- Obama Reach Opposite Conclusions On Who Beats McCain

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Campaign '08: But Which Democrat Can Win It All in November?; Clinton, Obama Reach Opposite Conclusions On Who Beats McCain

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WASHINGTON -- U.S. Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, knotted in the battle for the Democratic presidential nomination, are increasingly sniping over who is most capable of defeating Sen. John McCain in the fall.

As Mr. McCain continues on his seemingly inexorable journey to the Republican nomination, Mr. Obama and Mrs. Clinton are frequently citing polls and carefully selected evidence to demonstrate they match up well against the Arizona senator in a head-to-head battle.

Right now, Mr. Obama has the stronger argument: In nine polls in the past two months that are posted by RealClearPolitics.com, the Illinois senator tops Mr. McCain in eight of them, with several of the most recent showing him winning by more than the survey's margin of error. Mrs. Clinton, by contrast, loses seven of the nine head-to-head contests, but only slightly.

But polls have proven volatile this political season, and at this point neither Democrat is close to a lock for a theoretical November victory. Both candidates display weaknesses that could hinder their electability.

The Clinton campaign harps on Mr. Obama's lack of big-time political experience -- a knock that the Republican National Committee has already begun making. This week on its Web site, the RNC issued a series of Valentine's cards, one of which lampooned Mr. Obama's Washington resume. "Three years in the U.S. Senate qualifies me to wish you happy Valentine's Day," the card says.

"I think the first thing that we've seen time and time again is that the GOP attack machine redefines the Democratic candidate. Hillary has withstood this process," Mark Penn, a senior Clinton adviser, told reporters this week.

But by touching on Mrs. Clinton's Washington experience, Mr. Penn also flags what could be one of her weaknesses in a general election contest: her past as an outspoken and hands-on first lady, joined at the hip with her husband, who was impeached by a Republican Congress.

In an interview earlier this week on WJLA Channel 7 in Washington, Mrs. Clinton was asked by an email correspondent whether she could guarantee that Bill Clinton could refrain from giving "fodder to Republicans" by remaining free of scandal during her term in office.

"I can assure this reader that that is not going to happen," Mrs. Clinton said, before backing off slightly. "You know, none of us can predict the future, no matter who we are and what we are running for, but I am very confident that that will not happen."

Mr. Obama says that in most cases, he thinks his supporters would fall in line behind Mrs. Clinton, should he fail to win the nomination, and her supporters would do the same for him, since the two agree on most policies.

But in a recent debate, Mr. Obama said he believed he had one edge: the Iraq war. Mrs. Clinton initially supported it, Mr. McCain has consistently supported it, and Mr. Obama has consistently opposed it.

The question of who is more electable in November isn't just being mulled by voters and the front-runners. An aide to John Edwards, who recently dropped out of the Democratic race, said the former North Carolina senator is torn over whether to endorse a politician he considers intimately tied to a dysfunctional political system, or to take a chance on a relative newcomer who may not have the toughness or the experience to go up against special interests in Washington.

Mike Huckabee, who runs a distant second to Mr. McCain for the Republican nomination, told reporters yesterday that while he admires Mrs. Clinton's grasp of policy issues, he thinks Mr. Obama has an advantage, adding that the Illinois senator "has energized an enormous level of the electorate" -- and not just Democrats.

Mr. Obama continues to show an inability to win many of the big states that in the November election will be winner-take-all. Although Mr. Obama easily won his home state of Illinois, Mrs. Clinton beat him handily in California and New Jersey -- two states where campaign organization and name recognition were key to victory.

Mrs. Clinton also won a straw contest in Florida and is favored to win in Ohio and Pennsylvania -- states that have been crucial to presidential victory. Mrs. Clinton has said she considers this a strong demonstration of her ability to appeal to a broad swath of the U.S. electorate.

Who is most prepared to face Republicans in the fall general election? In the end, it might be who the Republicans -- and perhaps their standard-bearer -- attack that gives the best indication. Asked several months ago who he thought might win the Democratic nomination, President Bush said he believed Mrs. Clinton would.

Asked over the weekend on Fox News what he thought about Mr. Obama, Mr. Bush was quick to throw a punch. "I certainly don't know what he believes in," Mr. Bush said. "The only foreign policy thing I remember he said was he's going to attack Pakistan and embrace [Iran President Mahmoud] Ahmadinejad."

The comments bent quite sharply what Mr. Obama has said about the subjects -- that he would authorize a strike on "high-value terrorist targets," if he was certain they resided in Pakistan, and that he would be willing to meet with rogue leaders such as Mr. Ahmadinejad in an attempt to settle differences.