The Wall Street Journal-20080205-Campaign -08- Delicate Dance for Delegates- Democratic Contest Could Give Leader Momentum to Win

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Campaign '08: Delicate Dance for Delegates; Democratic Contest Could Give Leader Momentum to Win

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The Democrats haven't changed the complicated rules by which they choose their convention delegates -- and therefore their presidential nominee -- in a generation. It is just that this year, everyone is paying attention.

The Republicans' fairly straightforward delegate-selection rules mean that the party's nominee could be decided in today's primaries. Of 1,191 votes needed to win the Republican nomination, 964 are at stake today, and one-third of those are in states where the candidate who gets the most votes will win all of the state's delegates.

Things aren't as straightforward among the Democrats, which is why the party's rules mean so much this year. Democrats will choose 52% of their convention delegates in 22 states today. New York Sen. Hillary Clinton and Illinois Sen. Barack Obama are fighting for a share of the delegates in each of those states, plus a share of the delegates allocated to each congressional district and to the local bigwigs in each of those states.

That means even the candidate walking away with the most states or the largest popular vote may not be the night's victor. By winning even a few delegates more than the other, either candidate, under party rules, could begin opening a lead that the other candidate might not be able to close.

"Nobody's going to clinch it tomorrow," says Richard Berg-Andersson, whose Web site, TheGreenPapers.com, tracks delegate counts. "The question will be how much the leader will be ahead of any trailing candidates."

The Democrats' delegate-selection rules date to the 1970s and 1980s, but didn't receive much public attention in the past half-dozen elections because early caucuses and primaries produced an undisputed front-runner. That is different this year, as Sens. Obama and Clinton head into the Super Tuesday primaries nearly even in the polls.

The Democrats award about 3,000 of their convention delegates to the states based on their vote in the Electoral College and on how many popular votes they and their congressional districts gave to the party's presidential candidates in the past three elections.

By party rule, three-quarters of each state's delegates must be elected proportionately by district -- that is, the candidate who wins 60% of the popular vote in a congressional district gets 60% of its delegates. Another quarter of the delegates are awarded proportionately statewide.

In Arizona, for example, 37 of the state's 56 delegates will be awarded today based on district voting and 12 based on statewide voting.

The Democrats award another 15% of delegate votes to local party leaders and elected officials, or PLEOs. Those delegates also are awarded based on each candidate's statewide vote, and like other delegates awarded proportionately, they are "pledged" to vote for their candidate. In Arizona, that is another seven delegates.

Finally, party rules give a vote to each state's senators, congressional members, Democratic National Committee members and other party honchos who aren't pledged to vote for any candidate. Arizona has 11 of those superdelegates.

Of 4,049 delegates that the Democrats plan to seat at their convention in Denver in August, 3,253 will be chosen at the district or state level and will be pledged to a candidate. The Web site RealClearPolitics.com calculates that Sen. Obama has 63 unpledged delegates of the 2,025 total delegates needed to win the nomination, while Sen. Clinton has 48.

Another 796 will be superdelegates, 190 of whom have declared their support for Sen. Clinton and 104 for Sen. Obama.

The Democrats' highly diffuse selection system means that a candidate can lose a state, win some of its districts and collect delegates from both. Neither candidate can win the nomination based on today's results because too few delegates are at stake.

But if either candidate pulls ahead, his or her rival will have to win a bigger share of the delegates in each future primary to close the gap. Fewer states will vote each week from here on out, though. Ten states and Washington, D.C., will vote later this month and six will vote in March.

And if either candidate opens a lead today, more superdelegates will begin taking sides, adding to the leader's momentum. Even without a slam-dunk victory, Super Tuesday's leader "mathematically could cross the finish line" before his or her rival can catch up, says Mr. Berg- Andersson.