The Wall Street Journal-20080130-Politics - Economics- Will Olmert Hang On in Israel-- Bush-s Key Ally On Peace Proposal Girds for Criticism

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Politics & Economics: Will Olmert Hang On in Israel?; Bush's Key Ally On Peace Proposal Girds for Criticism

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JERUSALEM -- President Bush's signature Mideast peace plan, which he promoted on a tour of the region two weeks ago and again in his State of the Union address Monday night, depends heavily on a friend whose political survival is uncertain.

Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's ruling coalition is shriveling because of opposition to Mr. Bush's Israeli-Palestinian peace plan. With an approval rating that once bottomed out at about 3%, the 62- year-old leader is deeply unpopular even by the standards of Israel's two-fisted political arena. He is beset by corruption probes. He is under attack by reserve officers, many of them combat veterans, from the Israeli military, the nation's most revered institution.

And what may be Mr. Olmert's toughest test begins tonight, when an Israeli government commission releases its final report into what most here see as his bungled handling of the 2006 Lebanon war. Mr. Olmert's main coalition partner has threatened to pull out of the government following the release of the report, if the prime minister doesn't resign first.

An interim report in April savaged Mr. Olmert's performance, but the finale may cut deeper. It promises to address questions about Israel's bloodiest days in the conflict, a final battle pushed by Mr. Olmert that many analysts here argue was unnecessary.

"Things will potentially be very, very volatile," says Raanan Keinan-Sultizeanu, an Israeli analyst and professor of political science at Jerusalem's Hebrew University.

But few are counting Mr. Olmert out. Even his fiercest critics marvel at the cigar-chomping lawyer's survival skills, honed in a 34- year political career filled with adroit maneuvering.

"I definitely wouldn't see his political death anywhere in the near future," says Yoram Peri, a professor at Tel Aviv University and the head of the Chaim Herzog Institute for Media, Politics and Society. "He has brilliantly maneuvered all of the political scenery to a degree that I really cannot remember in Israeli politics."

Mr. Olmert is seen as crucial to Mr. Bush's vision, because of the Israeli leader's willingness to proceed with peace talks, his close personal relationship with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and his political ability to maintain a government in the face of strong opposition to negotiations.

Ehud Olmert was born on Sept. 30, 1945, in what was then British- ruled Palestine, within the walls of an ancient stone fortress called the Shuni. Located south of Haifa near the Mediterranean coast, it was then the headquarters for the radical Jewish underground that would fight both the British and the Arabs. Mr. Olmert's parents, Eastern European immigrants, dedicated themselves to the cause.

Some considered the rebels freedom fighters, while others, including the British, condemned them as terrorists. After Israel's declaration of independence in 1948, the underground leaders became the founders and future legends of Israel's political right -- giving Mr. Olmert a birthright to important political credentials.

The third of four brothers, young Ehud excelled in academics, sports and music. "It was ambition, ambition -- personal ambition," says Shlomo Ariav, now 86, who lived next to the Olmert family for decades. "He was very, very clever."

Mr. Olmert followed his father into politics. In 1973, at 28, he became the youngest member of Israel's Parliament. As a student, he had already challenged his right-wing party's revered leader, Menachem Begin, over a string of electoral defeats, in a public confrontation that blossomed into political lore. "He was the only one who was strong enough to stand up to Begin, and he was just a boy," recalls Mr. Ariav.

Mr. Olmert rose to prominence in the conservative Likud Party. But after his internal rival, Benjamin Netanyahu, won Likud's top post, Mr. Olmert successfully ran for Jerusalem mayor in 1993. He returned to Parliament a decade later under his patron, then-Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon.

Because of a reported political bargain between Messrs. Sharon and Netanyahu, Mr. Olmert got what was widely considered a lesser job: deputy prime minister. He kept the post after he followed Mr. Sharon into a new centrist political party -- Kadima -- created over Israel's 2005 withdrawal from the Gaza Strip and some West Bank settlements.

Less than seven weeks after leading the exodus from Likud, Mr. Sharon had a massive stroke. He has never recovered. Mr. Olmert assumed power as acting prime minister until Kadima won elections in March 2006, leading some to dub him Israel's "accidental prime minister."

Mr. Olmert and his confidants oozed confidence just four months later, as they sent Israeli forces to war in Lebanon following a Hezbollah raid in which three Israeli soldiers were killed and two were captured. A pal of Mr. Olmert's boasted to the foreign press that the prime minister exuded a sense of inner calm and strength during a personal luncheon, even as helicopters shuttled overhead to battle.

But before long, any hubris was wiped away by facts on the ground -- and in the air. A constant barrage of Hezbollah-fired rockets, which Mr. Olmert's government proved powerless to stop, devastated northern Israel. Guerrilla attacks on the ground also damaged the Israeli military's Goliath image in the Middle East, as Mr. Olmert's forces withdrew from southern Lebanon without achieving any of the goals he set when the five-week war began.

April's preliminary report by the so-called Winograd commission concluded Mr. Olmert bore "supreme and comprehensive" blame for a list of blunders that amounted "to a serious failure" in "judgment, responsibility and prudence."

Mr. Olmert survived a barrage of calls for his resignation and an unsuccessful revolt in his own party, though almost everyone else in a leadership role during the war was forced out. He said at the time he wouldn't quit, because the report didn't specifically ask him to do so. Then he argued that taking responsibility meant staying on to fix the problems.

Mr. Olmert suggested recently he won't resign, regardless of what is in today's report. Expected to receive special attention today is an offensive Mr. Olmert ordered in the war's last hours, even as a cease- fire was near completion, that left 33 Israeli soldiers dead.

Although his coalition has been weakened by the right-wing party that bolted earlier this month over peace talks, those very same negotiations with the Palestinians could now help Mr. Olmert cement a more stable, albeit slimmed down, majority.

The peace agenda appears to have the left-leaning Labor Party, a traditional supporter of negotiations and the ruling coalition's second-biggest member, in a quandary. Its new chief promised last year to quit the government if Mr. Olmert didn't resign following the final report's release. But leading Laborites now appear to be backtracking, fearing they may be blamed for scuttling peace.

Mr. Olmert's other major coalition partner is an orthodox religious party that wants more governmental policies based on Jewish law. The Shas Party is also unhappy over talks with the Palestinians and could scuttle Mr. Olmert's majority if it bails out.

But ever the wheeler-dealer, Mr. Olmert recently agreed to resuscitate a government religious-affairs ministry, which Shas will lead. He also suggested he would delay discussions with the Palestinians about dividing Jerusalem, a core issue in the talks, but a red line for many orthodox Jews.

In the wake of those moves, the Shas spiritual leader announced yesterday his party would stand by Mr. Olmert -- no matter what the report says.