The Wall Street Journal-20080129-Win for the Patriots Is Win for -Da Bears-

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Win for the Patriots Is Win for 'Da Bears'

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A perfect season might not be perfect for investors, if you believe one of the stock market's quirkiest -- but most accurate -- indicators.

Yes, it is time for the Super Bowl Predictor of stocks, and it has called the right direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average for the year following 33 of the 41 bowls, or an astonishing 81% success rate.

In short, whenever an "original" National Football League team wins the big game, the market rises; but it falls when the winner is a team like the New England Patriots that joined the NFL because of the league's merger with the American Football League in 1970.

No-Fun-League cynics sneer that the indicator takes advantage of a tilted field, because the Pittsburgh Steelers' five championships count for the "original NFL" side, even though the team is in the American conference where most former AFL teams reside. Plus, markets generally go up, and old AFL teams generally failed until recent years.

Nitpicks aside, the indicator continues to put up a completion percentage that would make any quarterback drool with envy.

Last year, the indicator worked yet again. The Indianapolis Colts, an original NFL team based on their roots as the Baltimore Colts, won the game -- and the stock market had a winning year.

This year, it is the bearish Patriots against the New York Giants, an original NFL team, and thus a "bullish" one.

"We were supposed to have an 'up' year in '07, which we did, and now it looks like we'll have a down year if the Patriots win," says Robert Stovall, 81-year-old strategist for Wood Asset Management in Sarasota, Fla., who has long tracked the indicator.

In fact, he says the indicator might be influencing the market "in reverse" right now, with traders pushing down stocks since they -- and Vegas oddsmakers -- figure the undefeated Patriots will win.

Your call.