The Wall Street Journal-20080119-Politics - Economics- South Carolina May Winnow GOP Field- Primary is Key for McCain- Huckabee- Thompson- Parsing Nevada-s Results
Return to: The_Wall_Street_Journal-20080119
Politics & Economics: South Carolina May Winnow GOP Field; Primary is Key for McCain, Huckabee, Thompson; Parsing Nevada's Results
The muddled Republican race for president may grow a tad clearer as South Carolina votes Saturday, with both Sen. John McCain and Mike Huckabee competing to build on early wins and Fred Thompson needing a strong showing in his home region to survive.
Messrs. McCain and Huckabee have each claimed victory in an early state. But neither has been able to stake a firm claim on the nomination, and both need a second win to prove their campaigns have staying power. Whoever wins will have momentum going into Florida against Rudy Giuliani, who has bet his once front-running campaign on that state's Jan. 29 primary.
Among the Democrats, both Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama will remain standing after Saturday's caucuses in Nevada. But if former Sen. John Edwards notches another distant third in a state where he has placed a big bet, it will be harder for him to justify remaining in the hunt.
Republicans are caucusing in Nevada on Saturday, as well. In a state with a large Mormon population, Mitt Romney is expected to win, if only by default; none of his rivals campaigned there. A win in Nevada will allow Mr. Romney to claim momentum coming off his victory Tuesday in Michigan. But the real contest among Republicans this weekend is in South Carolina, where the race has been both ugly and complex.
Mr. Romney, whose Mormonism has hurt him in largely evangelical South Carolina, pulled out of the state despite having run more total TV ads than any of his rivals. Now at the top of the polls: Mr. McCain, the senator from Arizona, and Mr. Huckabee, the former Arkansas governor. A tracking poll released Friday by InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion found them tied with 26% of the vote, with each and everyone else far back.
One unknown: the weather, with rain, snow and chilly temperatures predicted. Lee Bandy, a 40-year veteran political columnist who now works for the InsiderAdvantage report, said that could help Mr. Huckabee. "His voters are more passionate and will turn out come hell or high water," Mr. Bandy predicted.
Mr. McCain himself addressed that concern Friday. "I understand the weather is going to be pretty chilly tomorrow, so you're probably going to have to put on an extra sweater and go out in the cold," he told a gathering at a hospital in Florence, S.C. "But I need your vote. I need it. And I'm asking for it."
Mr. McCain, who won New Hampshire, and Mr. Huckabee, who won Iowa, appeal to different segments of the electorate.
Mr. McCain, a Vietnam prisoner of war, is strongest among military families who are concentrated along the coast, the so-called Lowcountry, and he spent the final day of campaigning in Florence, Myrtle Beach and Hilton Head. He ended the day with a rally at the decommissioned aircraft carrier U.S.S. Yorktown.
As in Iowa, Mr. Huckabee is counting on evangelical voters, who are concentrated in the upstate area of Greenville, Spartanburg and surrounding communities.
"It's the Christian soldiers vs. the retired soldiers," said Chip Felkel, a veteran of South Carolina Republican politics who is neutral in this race.
A loss in South Carolina would be devastating for Mr. McCain. He lost here to George W. Bush in 2000, all but ending his run at the White House, and he has repeatedly predicted a win here in recent days. "South Carolina will most likely determine who the nominee is," Mr. McCain said Friday.
A loss would also be painful for Mr. Huckabee, the once-backwater candidate who needs to show that his victory in Iowa wasn't a fluke. Even with a South Carolina win, he will have to prove he can expand his appeal beyond core evangelical support.
The two men have been extraordinarily civil to each other in what appeared for weeks to be a nonaggression pact aimed at ousting a common enemy, Mr. Romney.
But when a pro-Huckabee group began attacking Mr. McCain, the Arizona senator hit back in an effort to turn an opponent's words against him. An online ad posted Friday features clips of Mr. Huckabee showering praise on Mr. McCain. "Sen. McCain, no matter what anyone may say, is a genuine conservative," Mr. Huckabee says in one clip. "John McCain is a true, honest-to-God American hero," he states in another. "If you want the truth about John McCain, just ask Mike Huckabee," the announcer concludes.
Still, the Web-only ad isn't likely to be seen by many South Carolina voters before they begin casting ballots.
On the Democratic side, Mrs. Clinton appears to have the edge in recent polls in Nevada, but as in Iowa, the outcome of a caucus hinges largely on organization, and it isn't clear who will actually turn out for the vote.
Mrs. Clinton, of New York, has the advantage of Democratic- establishment support, but Mr. Obama, of Illinois, won the coveted endorsement of the culinary workers' union as well as a court battle that allows caucuses to go forth in casinos, making it convenient for these workers to participate. A loss for him might land harder given that advantage.
From Nevada, the Democratic race moves to South Carolina, where a large African-American population gives Mr. Obama an edge in the Jan. 26 primary. Mrs. Clinton is already looking beyond that contest. On Saturday, her campaign will head to St. Louis and then New York before settling in South Carolina.
---
Alex Frangos, Susan Davis, Elizabeth Holmes and Amy Chozick contributed to this article.
