The New York Times-20080125-Separated by a Quarter-Century of Change- but Linked by Race
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Separated by a Quarter-Century of Change, but Linked by Race
Nearly 25 years of social change, political realignment and demographic shifts separate the presidential candidacies of the Rev. Jesse Jackson and Senator Barack Obama. Even so, there are echoes of 1984 as the battle for the Democratic nomination once again roars across the South, focused squarely on African-Americans.
The differences can be summed up, in many ways, by two slogans.
Our time has come was Mr. Jackson's rallying cry, a call to political empowerment for Southern blacks who still vividly remembered the struggle for the right to vote, capped by the bloody Selma marches and the Voting Rights Act of 1965. Mr. Jackson cast his presidential campaign in 1983-84 as another great step in that movement, an effort to shake up the Democratic Party and ensure that, as he put it, Hands that once picked cotton will now pick a president.
It was an immensely powerful appeal, one that galvanized his audiences as much as that of any presidential candidate in the last 30 years. His candidacy did, in fact, highlight the new power of black voters, the difference their turnout could make and their pivotal role in achieving Democratic majorities, especially in the new South.
It also changed the Democratic establishment in important ways. We understood the moment, said Donna Brazile, a top organizer for the 1984 Jackson campaign. Jesse had a grievance with the party itself -- it had to be opened up. He gave us all a seat at the table. Look at the Democratic National Committee today compared to the D.N.C. back then.
But, as Merle Black, an expert on Southern politics at Emory University, put it, I don't think any realistic observer thought Jesse Jackson had a chance at the Democratic nomination. In fact, one of the running questions of that campaign, among white Democratic politicians and the pundits, was, What does Jesse want?
In contrast, one of Mr. Obama's most memorable rallying cries, delivered in his victory speech after the Iowa caucuses, was, We are one people, and our time for change has come. It was the appeal of a mainstream politician, aimed at voters across the board, delivered to a largely white constituency he had just won.
Contrary to stereotypes, Obama's base most certainly hasn't been the black vote, said David A. Bositis, a senior political analyst at the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, a research group that focuses on policy issues of concern to African-Americans. For most of the past year, that was considered more a part of Hillary's base than Obama's base.
And Mr. Obama has not regularly wrapped himself in the mantle of the civil rights movement, the hallmark of an earlier generation of black politicians, many of whom had served with the Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. As the final stretch of the South Carolina campaign began Sunday, Mr. Obama did take the pulpit of Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta, the home church of Dr. King and holy ground for the movement.
But even there, in a speech laced with the history of the struggle for civil rights, Mr. Obama closed with a message aimed at a biracial, new generation audience: the image of a young white woman, motivated by her mother's health care troubles, and an elderly black man working together for his campaign.
Another big difference between 1984 and today: Mr. Obama, of Illinois, comes South with a well-financed, full-fledged national campaign and clear credibility as a potential nominee. With Obama, you don't know where the train is going to stop, Ms. Brazile said. This is a different candidate, a different season, a man who transcends race in many ways.
There are, however, echoes of 1984 -- arguably more and more in recent days. Back then, Walter F. Mondale, like Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton today, had locked up much of the support of the black political establishment in the South early on. When the campaign moved South, and he badly needed some victories, Mr. Mondale discovered that he still had those endorsements but that Mr. Jackson had captured the hearts and minds of black voters.
Similarly, Mrs. Clinton, of New York, has the support of such black political stalwarts as Representative John Lewis, the Georgia Democrat whose brutal beating in Selma in 1965 helped move a nation's conscience.
But polls suggest that Mr. Obama has swept away much of Mrs. Clinton's support among black voters in recent months; in the Nevada caucuses last week, he captured more than three-fourths of the African-American vote, according to voter surveys, compared with Mrs. Clinton's 14 percent. (Mr. Mondale did better in some Southern states in 1984, but Mr. Jackson still won more than three-fourths of the black vote in the primaries over all, according to an analysis by The New York Times.)
Mr. Jackson himself recently described Mr. Obama as riding on the crest of a wave of pride and appreciation, adding, But it's not just blacks.
John Norris, who worked for Mr. Jackson's 1988 campaign and is now an adviser to Mr. Obama, argued that both men brought new people out to vote, expanded the pie, if you will.
Still, even as Mr. Obama's support soars among blacks, he faces a challenge: maintaining the multiracial coalition that is at the heart of his message of change, and that could actually win him the prize that eluded Mr. Jackson in 1984 and 1988.
How much has racial politics changed in the past 24 years? Blacks and whites were strikingly polarized by the time the 1984 election rolled around, in which President Ronald Reagan carried just 9 percent of the black vote, and two-thirds of the white vote. In some parts of the South, notably Alabama and Mississippi, more than 80 percent of white voters backed Mr. Reagan.
The prospect of Mr. Obama getting caught in a resurgence of racially polarized politics worries some of his allies. Old racial sensitivities seemed to flare anew in recent weeks after comments by Mrs. Clinton that it took a president to get civil rights signed into law, which critics said diminished the role of Dr. King, spurring a nasty back-and-forth.
Some Obama supporters have accused the Clintons of playing racial politics; one even likened their tactics this week to those of Lee Atwater, the Republican strategist and iconic practitioner of Southern wedge politics, in an interview on CNN. Those charges have been angrily dismissed by the Clinton camp.
For Mr. Obama, a candidate trying to chart a new politics beyond old racial and ideological divisions, these are challenging times. They are also, perhaps, revealing times for the state of the country's politics.
Minyon Moore, who worked for Mr. Jackson in 1988 and now advises the Clinton campaign, said she believed that things have changed a great deal since the 1980s and that people would decide based on whether or not this person is paying attention to issues I care about.
Andrew Kohut, president of the Pew Research Center, said, I don't think we know the answer to this question, whether we're a good deal less polarized than we were. Looking toward the flurry of contests after South Carolina, Mr. Kohut added, but we'll get some quick feedback on Feb. 5.
[Illustration]PHOTOS: Senator Barack Obama on Thursday in Kingstree, S.C. We are one people, he often says. (PHOTOGRAPH BY DAMON WINTER/THE NEW YORK TIMES); The Rev. Jesse Jackson at the 1984 Democratic convention. His speech included a campaign refrain: Our time has come. (PHOTOGRAPH BY ASSOCIATED PRESS)