The New York Times-20080128-SAG Awards- Reading Tea Leaves on Who-s the Latest Cup of Tea
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SAG Awards: Reading Tea Leaves on Who's the Latest Cup of Tea
Full Text (684 words)What It All Means -- and Doesn't
In a year when all five Oscar nominees for best picture would seem to have a shot -- and the muted Golden Globes did little to clarify the picture -- the Screen Actors Guild Awards should have a huge role to play. But there's just one small unhelpful fact: Only one of this year's nominees for the best picture Oscars is in the running for the SAG ensemble award, which is how the actors settle on a best picture. 3:10 to Yuma,'Hairspray,'American Gangster and Into the Wild did not make it to the dance for the Big 5. Only No Country for Old Men garnered nominations from both the Screen Actors and the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.
In terms of tea-leaf reading, the SAGs can be prescient, but the actors have often gone their own way. Though both the SAGs and the Oscars settled on the underdog Crash in the 2005 awards, the years on either side told a different story. In 2004, the Academy chose Million Dollar Baby, but the actors went Sideways. And last year, the actors hopped on the Little Miss Sunshine van while the Academy eventually settled on The Departed.
Sasha Stone, the experienced awards hand who runs the Awards Daily site (awardsdaily.com), said the SAG Awards have been known to choose popular over deserving, as in 2005 when Annette Bening triumphed for her performance in Being Julia over Hilary Swank and her role in Million Dollar Baby.
That doesn't mean that there are no stakes tonight, particularly in a year when no Academy voters have a gotten a good public look at the nominees. A great speech, like the one Javier Bardem gave when he won best supporting actor, can endear him to the Academy. And it is worth remembering that actors make up the majority of voting members.
Also, the 5,800 or so members of the Academy right now have all manner of screeners in front of them, deciding what to put in the DVD player before they actually choose among the nominees. A best-actress win by Ellen Page may help Juno maintain momentum, while a curve ball, like Tom Wilkinson picking up a supporting win for his portrayal of a deranged lawyer in Michael Clayton, could mean that they may be a lot more momentum behind the Warner Brothers movie than people realize. And if George Clooney, the star of Michael Clayton, gets past Daniel Day Lewis of There Will Be Blood, well, Katie, bar the door.
Of Glamour and Gravitas
On Sunday night, you likely heard some brave political speeches from the Screen Actors Guild membership, wagging a finger about the writers' right to participate in the fruits of their labors, but a little historical perspective is in order. This is the bunch, after all, that chose Ronald Reagan as its president. And Patty Duke. And Ed Asner. Notice a trend here? The Bagger doesn't either. The only flag the Screen Actors Guild flies with any consistency is one with a finger to the wind on it. Harsh? Well, in 1953, the Screen Actors Guild decided to take a rigorous stand on blacklisting: Some 96 percent of their members voted in favor of making members sign a loyalty oath. They said they were sorry, oh, 50 years later. This glittering assembly of human jewelry, a delight to behold on screen and on the carpet, has all of the subtlety and not much of the homework of Michael Moore, who is fond of dishing out the brussel sprouts when it comes to making acceptance speeches.
Belly Up
Ellen Page, the 20-year-old star of Juno, did not know whose shoes she was wearing, bringing shame and umbrage from the red carpet crew at E! Entertainment Television.
I'm horrible, she admitted.
And then she was asked whether she took the Juno character, a 16-year-old who finds herself pregnant, home with her. I didn't wear the belly home, she said of the prosthetic she wore. I'm not that Daniel Day about it, she added, invoking the current Method acting king.
